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Week 12 CFP Bubble Watch: No real change

Week 12 CFP Bubble Watch: No real change

How this works

Let’s give a fast evaluate of how this works.

I embrace the rankings in yards per play of every staff. On one hand, the resume focuses on which groups you’ve got crushed, so I stick with solely figuring out the standard of wins and losses and present you every contender’s remaining video games. Then again, the committee “watches teams play,” which is actually not a quantifiable statistic, however one thing that we will no less than attempt to get a bearing on. Nonetheless, it’s exhausting to seek out an offensive or defensive metric that precisely represents all groups and types of play.

Some metrics will over-value “air raid” sort offenses whereas some will favor extra constant, however much less explosive, gameplans. The rank in offensive and defensive yards per play provides a primary metric of how environment friendly and/or constant a group is on each side of the ball.

For the needs of figuring out high quality wins, issues like Prime 10 and Prime 25 are arbitrary numbers that do extra hurt than good. There isn’t a purpose the hole between No. 25 and No. 26 is taken into account considerably bigger than the hole between 24 and 25. Subsequently, to counteract this, I’m being very lenient as to who is taken into account Prime 10 or Prime 25. Any staff within the Prime 25 of one of many main polls (CFP, AP, or Coaches’), or in a big variety of the accepted pc rankings, will probably be thought-about within the Prime 25 for resume functions. This results in the awkwardness of getting greater than 25 “Prime 25″ groups, however it presents a extra correct image of the general resume.

The choice committee has persistently talked about “wins over teams with winning records” as an essential metric, so I’m going to point out that to you. It’s a much less detailed solution to view a win than taking a look at the place every win is ranked, however the committee appears to care about it so we have now to. I can’t rely a win over an FCS group as a +.500 win, no matter document. Once more, despite the fact that the metric is a silly one–there are cupcakes with +.500 data (for instance, Hawaii and Nevada)–the committee cares about it, so we now have to.

The SOS vary is taken from quite a few pc rankings. Ranges may be fairly giant, however they do give an honest image of the chances of how robust the schedule truly is.

BUBBLE WATCH

Controls their very own future

Staff vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

Alabama 1-Zero Three-Zero Zero-Zero Three-Zero Three-Zero 5-35 5 7.7 (2) Four.2 (5)

To start with, the computer systems completely love the SEC. The convention has gone a whopping 38-5 in nonconference video games. We’ll see how the SEC holds up general after a couple of nonconference losses are available rivalry video games (assuming that Clemson beats South Carolina, and perhaps Texas A&M or Kentucky loses this week). If the SEC wins these video games, the numbers will keep very excessive. Not that Alabama wants it, in fact, however it is going to matter for different groups afterward.

Staff vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

Clemson Zero-Zero Three-Zero 2-Zero Three-Zero 2-Zero 30-50 6 7.Three (Three) Three.7 (2)

The Tigers additionally get the good thing about the computer systems’ love for Texas A&M, not that they want it both. What units Alabama and Clemson aside from everybody else? Simply take a look at these offensive and defensive numbers, and take a look at everybody else’s.

Staff vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

Notre Dame 1-Zero 1-Zero 1-Zero 5-Zero 2-Zero 25-50 Four 6.Zero (34) Four.Four (9)

Notre Dame is in probably the most tenuous place of the undefeated groups. Each Clemson and Alabama primarily have a recreation lead on the sector. Notre Dame doesn’t. The shortage of high quality wins on the prime signifies that a loss to, say, Syracuse, would go away Notre Dame with a tough resume to match to different to groups. Additionally, in contrast to each different main contender this yr, the Irish’s offense isn’t fairly so potent.

Workforce vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

Michigan Zero-1 Three-Zero 1-Zero Three-Zero 2-Zero 20-35 6 6.1 (29) Three.6 (1)

The loss to Notre Dame might value Michigan a Playoff spot, however the Wolverines have been racking up good wins since. Add that to one of the best protection within the nation and an SOS which may settle into the Prime 15 after enjoying Ohio State and Northwestern, and this resume might be Playoff-worthy if Michigan wins out. Whether or not head-to-head will trump that (if it comes into play) is anybody’s guess.

Group vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

Georgia Zero-1 Four-Zero 1-Zero Three-Zero 1-Zero Three-20 6 6.eight (11) Four.eight (27)

The computer systems love the SEC, which provides Georgia loads of high quality wins. That would come into play if Georgia loses to Georgia Tech, however beats Alabama. In fact, the SEC strengths of schedule will all plummet this week, so let’s wait every week earlier than worrying an excessive amount of about how the computer systems view the SEC.

On the bubble

Workforce vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

Oklahoma Zero-Zero 1-1 1-Zero 5-Zero 2-Zero 30-35 2 eight.7 (1) 5.Four (57)

That is the place the committee’s “wins over teams with winning records” stat is silly. Absolutely half the Massive 12 sits at 5-5 or Four-6 proper now. There are some strong groups in that group–definitely higher groups than any 6-Four Group of 5 group. However the committee will view issues the best way they may view issues. The one query for them about Oklahoma is whether or not the offense is sweet sufficient to beat that atrocious protection. Be sure to run it up towards Kansas this week to not give anybody any doubts.

Staff vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

West Virginia Zero-Zero 1-1 Zero-Zero 5-Zero 2-Zero 35-70 1 6.9 (7) 5.1 (42)

The Mountaineers lack high quality wins (they don’t even have that Military win that makes Oklahoma’s resume look stronger). In the event that they beat Oklahoma twice, which may not matter. Then once more, if the committee sticks to its foolish “wins over teams with winning records” stat, West Virginia won’t have an opportunity anyway. The sport towards N.C. State being canceled might actually harm the Mountaineers.

Staff vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

Ohio State Zero-Zero 2-Zero Zero-1 Four-Zero Three-Zero 40-65 2 6.Four (14) 5.5 (59)

Ohio State can also be missing within the “wins over teams with winning records” stat. The loss to Purdue was ugly. Additionally, Ohio State is helped by the truth that Purdue is barely a Prime 40 workforce, and Tulane and Minnesota are barely Prime 80 groups. This resume is on the hinge of wanting rather a lot worse than it does proper now. Beating Michigan convincingly is about Ohio State’s solely real probability proper now, until complete chaos leaves the Buckeyes as the one choice, even with an in depth win.

Workforce vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

Washington State Zero-Zero 1-Zero 1-Zero Three-1 Four-Zero 50-100 Four 6.1 (27) Four.eight (23)

There’s virtually no meat on this resume, and some extra upsets within the Pac 12 might depart Washington State with one ranked win, if the Cougars are fortunate. However, issues breaking correctly might imply 4 ranked wins by the top of the season. Additionally, Washington State has the worst loss (at the least when it comes to high quality of the group misplaced to) of any contender. The opposite query is that if and the way the committee would punish Washington State for its nonconference schedule. It hasn’t but–no less than not explicitly–but when it’s shut between Washington State and one other group, will the committee actually need to ship a message that scheduling all cupcakes in nonconference play will get you into the Playoff?

Outdoors wanting in

Workforce vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

Syracuse Zero-1 Zero-Zero 1-1 2-Zero 5-Zero 65-85 2 5.eight (49) 5.eight (84)

This resume has little or no proper now. Add a Prime 10 and a Prime 40 win to the combination, and who is aware of how good that can be then? The metrics are tough, however the SOS will rise. The committee will even keep in mind that Syracuse virtually beat Clemson. If we see sufficient chaos, a 10-2 Syracuse workforce is completely a viable choice.

Workforce vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

UCF Zero-Zero Zero-Zero 1-Zero Three-Zero 5-Zero 85-125 Three 7.1 (5) 5.Four (56)

This resume has nothing, though UCF’s last three opponents will make it stronger. That’s irrelevant, although. The committee is clearly grading UCF on a curve on account of final season. I do not know how one can examine UCF’s resume to anybody else’s. It very clearly doesn’t stack up, although the offensive numbers are elite. The committee has set itself as much as let UCF in with a bit extra chaos. We’ll see if that occurs.

For comparability

Staff vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

LSU 1-1 2-1 Zero-Zero 2-Zero Three-Zero 2-10 Four Four.9 (101) 5.Zero (40)

Right here is why LSU is eradicated. Sure, there are some ranked wins there as a result of the computer systems love the SEC a lot. These SOS numbers will plummet when LSU performs Rice this weekend, and the ultimate recreation towards Texas A&M will assist somewhat, however not a lot. This resume is corresponding to the bubble groups above, which is why the committee has LSU at No. 7 proper now. However LSU’s resume has peaked. It may well solely get weaker from right here. The resumes of everybody (or no less than sufficient groups) on the bubble will enhance. I stated that if we see complete chaos, LSU might slide again in. Nevertheless, that might take much more chaos than anybody has any proper to foretell or anticipate. LSU is out.

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