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UNLOCKED: Line Matching – October 4th

UNLOCKED: Line Matching – October 4th

Line Matching will typically be posted in the early afternoon (EST) once most teams have wrapped up their morning skates. Line Matching for afternoon games (on weekends) will be posted in the morning prior to puck-drop. Line Matching will be offered for FREE until Friday, October 5 before it is locked for DFO Premium Members Only

This post looks at which teams will have an advantage at 5v5. It looks at which lines the home-team will try and match-up against and which line could have an edge. It does not take power-play or goaltending into consideration. 

STATS

  • All totals are per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time.
  • SCF/SCA- Scoring chances for and against
  • CF/CA – Corsi for and against
  • HDCF/HDCA – High-danger Chances for and against

Matchups

  • Which lines the Home team is expected to be matched up against.

Index

1️⃣ – Indicates PP1 Usage
2️⃣ – Indicates PP2 Usage


Boston Bruins @ Buffalo Sabres

Advantage Matchup
BOS2 BUF1

Even

BUF1 split 70/30 against BOS2/BOS1

LW J. DeBrusk 2️⃣ LW J. Skinner 1️⃣
C D. Krejci 2️⃣ C J. Eichel 1️⃣
RW D. Heinen 2️⃣ RW S. Reinhart 1️⃣
Sample: 579:52 TOI (DeBrusk & Krejci) Sample: 236:22 TOI (Eichel & Reinhart)
OFF: 61 CF, 29 SCF, 9 HDCF OFF: 54 CF, 24 SCF, 11 HDCF
DEF: 51 CA, 22 SCA, 9 HDCA DEF: 55 CA, 24 SCA, 11HDCA
BOS1 BUF2

BOS1

BUF 2 split 70/30 against BOS1/BOS2

LW B. Marchand 1️⃣ LW C. Sheary 2️⃣
C P. Bergeron 1️⃣ C P. Berglund
RW D. Pastrnak 1️⃣ RW T. Thompson 2️⃣
Sample: 535:54 TOI Sample: 107:27 TOI (Berglund & Thompson)
OFF: 67 CF, 33 SCF, 12 HDCF OFF: 64 CF, 25 SCF, 8 HDCF
DEF: 47 CA, 24 SCA, 12 HDCA DEF: 55 CA, 25 SCA, 8 HDCA
BOS3 BUF3

N/A

Not a hard match

LW R. Donato 1️⃣ LW V. Sobotka
C S. Kuraly C C. Mittelstadt 2️⃣
RW D. Backes 2️⃣ RW K. Okposo 1️⃣
Sample: 42:46 TOI (Backes & Kuraly) Sample: No Sample- Mittelstadt is a rookie and Sobotka new to the team.
OFF: 64 CF, 23 SCF, 3 HDCF OFF: N/A
DEF: 31 CA, 16 SCA, 4 HDCF DEF: N/A

Analysis:

BOS1 would normally be a no-brainer in this matchup but they are on the tail end of a back-to-back and fresh off a 7-0 beating at the hands of the Capitals. Captain Jack Eichel makes for a strong cash play against a tired Bruins’ team.

New York Islanders @ Carolina Hurricanes

Advantage Matchup
NYI1 CAR1

Slight CAR 1

CAR1 split 50/50 against NYI1/NYI3

LW A. Beauvillier 1️⃣ LW M. Ferland 2️⃣
C M. Barzal 1️⃣ C S. Aho 1️⃣
RW J. Bailey 2️⃣ RW T. Teravainen 1️⃣
Sample: 444:13 TOI (Barzal & Beauvillier) Sample: 733:46 TOI (Aho & Teravainen)
OFF: 66 CF, 34 SCF, 15 HDCF OFF: 62 CF, 29 SCF, 13 HDCF
DEF: 63 CA, 33 SCA, 13 HDCA DEF: 47 CA, 22 SCA, 11 HDCA
NYI3 CAR2

N/A

CAR2 split 50/50 against NYI3/NYI1

LW L. Komarov LW W. Foegele
C V. Filppula 2️⃣ C J. Staal 1️⃣
RW T. Fritz RW J. Williams 2️⃣
Sample: No Sample-Played on three different teams in 2018 Sample: 284:31 TOI (Staal & Williams)
OFF: N/A OFF: 68 CF, 32 SCF, 12 HDCF
DEF: N/A DEF: 53 CA, 23 SCA, 8 HDCA
NYI2 CAR3

N/A

Would have been a hard match last year but could change with Derek Ryan gone

LW A. Lee 1️⃣ LW B. McGinn
C B. Nelson 2️⃣ C M. Necas 2️⃣
RW J. Eberle 1️⃣ RW V. Zykov 1️⃣
Sample: 92:19 (Nelson & Eberle) Sample: No Sample-Zykov and Necas are both rookies
OFF: 71 CF, 39 SCF, 16 HDCF OFF: N/A
DEF: 47 CA, 28 SCA, 14 HDCA DEF: N/A

Analysis:

Barzal and company are a tough opening night assignment for CAR1, but they should flourish in the time they see against NYI3. Given the Canes’ dominance at 5v5 last year, a powerplay stack is the way to go if you’re looking to play the Islanders.

Washington Capitals @ Pittsburgh Penguins

Advantage Matchup
WSH1 PIT1

Even, High-Event

Hard match

LW A. Ovechkin 1️⃣ LW J. Guentzel 2️⃣
C E. Kuznetsov 1️⃣ C S. Crosby 1️⃣
RW B. Conolly 2️⃣ RW P. Hornqvist 1️⃣
Sample: 557:00 TOI (Ovechkin & Kuznetsov) Sample: 98:43 TOI (All 3)
OFF: 59 CF, 30 SCF, 13 HDCF OFF: 74 CF, 38 SCF, 15 HDCF
DEF: 62 CA, 30 SCA, 15 HDCA DEF: 55 CA, 38 SCA, 9 HDCA
WSH2 PIT2

Even

Hard match

LW J. Vrana 2️⃣ LW C. Hagelin
C N. Backstrom 1️⃣ C E. Malkin 1️⃣
RW T. Oshie 1️⃣ RW P. Kessel 1️⃣
Sample: 477:00 TOI (Backstrom & Oshie) Sample: 578:31 TOI (Malkin & Kessel)
OFF: 58 CF, 27 SCF, 9 HDCF OFF: 62 CF, 28 SCF, 11 HDCF
DEF: 54 CA, 24 SCA, 10 HDCA DEF: 58 CA, 29 SCA, 14 HDCA
WSH3 PIT3

PIT3

Hard match

LW A. Burakovsky LW D. Simon
C L. Eller C D. Brassard 2️⃣
RW C. Stephenson 2️⃣ RW B. Rust
Sample: 297:00 TOI (Eller & Burakovsky) Sample: 58:51 TOI (Simon & Rust)
OFF: 58 CF, 27 SCF, 8 HDCF OFF: 69 CF, 32 SCF, 12 HDCF
DEF: 61 CA, 30 SCA, 15 HDCF DEF: 52 CA, 35 SCA, 16 HDCA

Analysis:

Capitals are on the tail-end of a back-to-back so PIT1 gets the nod in an otherwise even matchup. They are the line of choice tonight if you’re looking to stack the Pens. They should see plenty of chances in a high-event matchup. Of course, a Pittsburgh powerplay stack is always on the table, too.

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Detroit Red Wings

Advantage Matchup
CBJ1 DET1

CBJ 1

DET1 split 60/40 against CBJ1/CBJ2

LW A. Panarin 1️⃣ LW G. Nyquist 1️⃣
C P-L. Dubois 1️⃣ C D. Larkin 1️⃣
RW C. Atkinson 1️⃣ RW A. Mantha 2️⃣
Sample: 350:52 TOI (All 3) Sample: 472:40 TOI (Larkin & Mantha)
OFF: 69 CF, 36 SCF, 14 HDCF OFF: 60 CF, 26 SCF, 10 HDCF
DEF: 55 CA, 27 SCA, 12 HDCA DEF: 55 CA, 28 SCA, 12 HDCA
CBJ2 DET2

CBJ 2

DET2 split 60/40 against CBJ2/CBJ1

LW N.Foligno 1️⃣ LW T. Bertuzzi 1️⃣
C A. Wennberg 2️⃣ C F. Nielsen 2️⃣
RW O. Bjorkstrand 2️⃣ RW M. Rasmussen 1️⃣
Sample: 109:07 TOI (All 3) Sample: 57:55 (Bertuzzi & Nielsen)
OFF: 82 CF, 36 SCF, 16 HDCF OFF: 54 CF, 24 SCF, 8 HDCF
DEF: 49 CA, 24 SCA, 12 HDCA DEF: 60 CA, 31 SCA, 7 HDCA
CBJ3 DET3

Slight CBJ3

DET3/DET4 split against CBJ 3/CBJ4

LW B. Jenner 2️⃣ LW J. Abdelkader
C B. Dubinsky C A. Athanasiou 2️⃣
RW J. Anderson 2️⃣ RW T. Vanek 2️⃣
Sample: 88:07 TOI (All 3) Sample: 151:04 TOI (Athanasiou & Abdelkader)
OFF: 66 CF, 33 SCF, 14 HDCF OFF: 62 CF, 26 SCF, 10 HDCF
DEF: 69 CA, 29 SCA, 13 HDCA DEF: 50 CA, 23 SCA, 9 HDCA

Analysis:

CBJ1 should see time against DET1 and DET2 and is a heavy-favourite in both matchups. They are one of the top plays of the night; consider adding Werenski and/or Foligno for the powerplay stack.

Chicago Blackhawks @ Ottawa Senators

Advantage Matchup
CHI2 OTT1

Slight OTT1

OTT1 70/30 split against CHI2/CHI3

LW B. Saad 2️⃣ LW R. Dzingel 1️⃣
C N. Schmaltz 1️⃣ C M. Duchene 1️⃣
RW P. Kane 1️⃣ RW B. Ryan 1️⃣
Sample: 125:31 TOI Sample: 122:24 TOI
OFF: 58 CF, 29 SCF, 11 HDCF OFF: 69 CF, 30 SCF, 14 HDCF
DEF: 58 CA, 32 SCA, 12 HDCA DEF: 60 CA, 25 SCA, 10 HDCA
CHI1 OTT2

Even

Hard match

LW A. DeBrincat 1️⃣ LW Z. Smith 2️⃣
C J. Toews 1️⃣ C C. White 2️⃣
RW D. Kahun 2️⃣ RW M. Stone 1️⃣
Sample: 241:15 TOI (Toews & DeBrincat) Sample: 141:55 TOI (Smith & Stone* came mostly with Brassard)
OFF: 66 CF, 31 SCF, 9 HDCF OFF: 68 CF, 30 SCF, 17 HDCF
DEF: 58 CA, 24 SCA, 12 HDCA DEF: 66 CA, 26 SCA, 12 HDCA
CHI3 OTT3

N/A

OTT3 split against CHI3/CHI4

LW C. Kunitz LW A. Formenton
C A. Anisimov 2️⃣ C C. Tierney 2️⃣
RW D. Kampf RW M. Boedker 2️⃣
Sample: No Sample-Kunitz new to the team, Anisimov and Kampf played less than 5 mins together last year. Sample: 470:49 TOI (Tierney & Boedker)
OFF: N/A OFF: 54 CF, 26 SCF, 11 HDCF
DEF: N/A DEF: 63 CA, 30 SCA, 13 HDCA

Analysis:

These matchups are dependent on whether Ottawa views the Toews or Kane line as the Chicago’s top line. Either way, this should be a low-event game and doesn’t garner a whole lot of DFS attention. Kane still makes for a solid cash play.

Nashville Predators @ New York Rangers

Advantage Matchup
NSH1 NYR1

Even

Hard match

LW F. Forsberg 1️⃣ LW C. Kreider 1️⃣
C R. Johansen 1️⃣ C M. Zibanejad 1️⃣
RW V. Arvidsson 1️⃣ RW P. Buchnevich 1️⃣
Sample: 518:51 TOI Sample: 259:01 ATOI
OFF: 68 CF, 28 SCF, 11 HDCF OFF: 68 CF, 33 SCF, 16 HDCF
DEF: 54 CA, 27 SCA, 12 HDCA DEF: 52 CA, 24 SCA, 10 HDCA
NSH2 NYR2

NSH2

Hard match

LW K. Fiala 2️⃣ LW J. Vesey 2️⃣
C K. Turris 2️⃣ C K. Hayes 2️⃣
RW C. Smith 1️⃣ RW M. Zuccarello 2️⃣
Sample: 544:52 TOI Sample: 366 TOI (Hayes & Zuccarello)
OFF: 74 CF, 34 SCF, 14 HDCF OFF: 52 CF, 29 SCF, 14 HDCF
DEF: 52 CA, 23 SCA, 10 HDCA DEF: 60 CA, 28 SCA, 13 HDCA
NSH3 NYR3

NSH3

Hard match

LW C. Sissons LW V. Namestnikov
C N. Bonino C B. Howden
RW C. Jarnkrok 2️⃣ RW V. Lettieri
Sample: 48:09 TOI Sample: No Sample- Howden is a rookie, Namestnikov and Lettieri did not play together at all last year
OFF: 69 CF, 29 SCF, 10 HDCF OFF: N/A
DEF: 48 CA, 21 SCA, 10 HDCA DEF: N/A

Analysis:

NYR1 is underrated at 5v5 and NSH1 didn’t generate a ton of scoring chances last year. Might be best to fade NSH1 in a deceivingly tough matchup. NSH2 has a stronger matchup and comes at a much cheaper price.

Winnipeg Jets @ St. Louis Blues

Advantage Matchup
WPG1 STL1

N/A

Soft match

LW K. Connor 1️⃣ LW P. Maroon 1️⃣
C M. Scheifele 1️⃣ C R. O’Reilly 1️⃣
RW B. Wheeler 1️⃣ RW V. Tarasenko 1️⃣
Sample: 611:10 TOI Sample: No Sample-Maroon and O’Reilly both new to the team.
OFF: 59 CF, 29 SCF, 12 HDCF OFF: N/A
DEF: 57 CA, 26 SCA, 9 HDCA DEF: N/A
WPG2 STL2

Slight WPG2

STL2 split against WPG2/3

LW M. Perreault 2️⃣ LW J. Schwartz 2️⃣
C B. Little 2️⃣ C B. Schenn 2️⃣
RW P. Laine 1️⃣ RW J. Kyrou
Sample: 66:04 TOI Sample: 410:04 (Schwartz & Schenn without Tarasenko)
OFF: 67 CF, 30 SCF, 11 HDCF OFF: 64 CF, 31 SCF, 11 HDCF
DEF: 58 CA, 17 SCA, 5 HDCA DEF: 50 CA, 25 SCA, 11 HDCA
WPG3 STL3

N/A

STL3 split against WPG3/2

LW K. Vesalainen LW A. Steen 2️⃣
C J. Roslovic 2️⃣ C T. Bozak 1️⃣
RW N. Ehlers 2️⃣ RW D. Perron 2️⃣
Sample: No Sample-Vesalainen is a rookie, Roslovic and Ehlers did not play together last year. Sample: No Sample-Perron and Bozak both new to the team.
OFF: N/A OFF: N/A
DEF: N/A DEF: N/A

Analysis:

Hard to judge the top matchup because of the new faces in St. Louis, but Ryan O’Reilly is always a tough matchup. Powerplay stacks work best for this game.

Arizona Coyotes @ Dallas Stars

Advantage Matchup
ARI1 DAL1

Slight DAL 1

DAL1 split 50/50 against ARI1/ARI2

LW R. Panik 2️⃣ LW J. Benn 1️⃣
C D. Stepan 1️⃣ C T. Seguin 1️⃣
RW C. Fischer 1️⃣ RW A. Radulov 1️⃣
Sample: 310:19 TOI (Panik & Stepan) Sample: 633:09 TOI
OFF: 66 CF, 29 SCF, 13 HDCF OFF: 66 CF, 32 SCF, 13 HDCF
DEF: 58 CA, 26 SCA, 10 HDCA DEF: 60 CA, 29 SCA, 9 HDCA
ARI3 DAL2

N/A

Hard match

LW L. Crouse LW M. Janmark 2️⃣
C D. Strome 2️⃣ C J. Spezza 1️⃣
RW L. Dauphin RW B. Comeau
Sample: No Sample-Largest sample between the three of them is 14 mins Sample: 456:21 TOI (Spezza & Janmark)
OFF: N/A OFF: 60 CF, 24 SCF, 11 HDCF
DEF: N/A DEF: 54 CA, 23 SCA, 9 HDCA
ARI2 DAL3

Even

DAL3 split 50/50 against ARI2/ARI1

LW B. Perlini 1️⃣ LW D. Shore 2️⃣
C C. Keller 1️⃣ C R. Faksa
RW V. Hinostroza 2️⃣ RW T. Pitlick
Sample: 197:34 TOI (Keller & Perlini) Sample: 785:43 TOI (Faksa & Pitlick)
OFF: 53 CF, 26 SCF, 10 HDCF OFF: 54 CF, 24 SCF, 9 HDCF
DEF: 63 CA, 30 SCA, 13 HDCA DEF: 54 CA, 23 SCA, 9 HDCA

Analysis:

DAL1 has the edge at 5v5 but the Stepan line will challenge them. The Arizona matchup should draw high ownership.

Minnesota Wild @ Colorado Avalanche

Advantage Matchup
MIN1 COL1

Even, High-Event

Hard match

LW J. Zucker 2️⃣ LW G. Landeskog 1️⃣
C E. Staal 1️⃣ C N. MacKinnon 1️⃣
RW M. Granlund 1️⃣ RW M. Rantanen 1️⃣
Sample: 153:37 TOI Sample: 742:30 TOI
OFF: 71 CF, 35 SCF, 19 HDCF OFF: 63 CF, 31 SCF, 12 HDCF
DEF: 64 CA, 25 SCA, 12 HDCA DEF: 60 CA, 27 SCA, 10 HDCA
MIN3 COL2

MIN3

Hard match

LW C. Coyle 1️⃣ LW C. Wilson 2️⃣
C J. Greenway C T. Jost 1️⃣
RW J. Eriksson Ek RW A. Kerfoot 2️⃣
Sample: 193:40 (Coyle & Eriksson Ek) Sample: 241:07 TOI (Jost & Kerfoot)
OFF: 62 CF, 28 SCF, 15 HDCF OFF: 54 CF, 25 SCF, 7 HDCF
DEF: 58 CA, 22 SCA, 9 HDCA DEF: 65 CF, 31 SCA, 12 HDCA
MIN2 COL3

MIN2

Hard match

LW Z. Parise 1️⃣ LW M. Nieto
C M. Koivu 2️⃣ C C. Soderberg
RW N. Niederreiter 2️⃣ RW G. Bourque
Sample: 59:42 TOI Sample: 687:10 TOI (Soderberg & Nieto)
OFF: 62 CF, 30 SCF, 16 HDCF OFF: 53 CF, 22 SCF, 8 HDCF
DEF: 38 CA, 13 SCA, 5 HDCA DEF: 63 CA, 27 SCA, 10 HDCA

Analysis:

Dealer’s choice between MIN1 and COL1 in what should be a high-event matchup, but you should always give the edge to COL1 at home. MIN2 draws a great matchup against COL3, so there’s a lot to like in this game.

Philadelphia Flyers @ Vegas Golden Knights 

Advantage Matchup
PHI1 VGK1

Even

VGK1 split 60/40 against PHI1/PHI2

LW C. Giroux 1️⃣ LW J. Marchessault 1️⃣
C S. Couturier 1️⃣ C W. Karlsson 1️⃣
RW T. Konecny 2️⃣ RW R. Smith 1️⃣
Sample: 497:27 TOI Sample: 708:33 TOI
OFF: 60 CF, 27 SCF, 12 HDCF OFF: 62 CF, 31 SCF, 12 HDCF
DEF: 50 CA, 22 SCA, 8 HDCA DEF: 50 CA, 24 SCA, 9 HDCA
PHI2 VGK2

N/A

VGK2 split 60/40 against PHI2/PHI1

LW O. Lindblom LW M. Pacioretty 2️⃣
C N. Patrick 2️⃣ C P. Stastny 2️⃣
RW J. Voracek 1️⃣ RW E. Haula 2️⃣
Sample: 231:16 TOI Sample: No Sample-Pacioretty and Stastny are new to the team
OFF: 69 CF, 32 SCF, 13 HDCF OFF: N/A
DEF: 56 CA, 28 SCA, 10 HDCA DEF: N/A
PHI3 VGK3

N/A

Soft match

LW J. van Riemsdyk 2️⃣ LW T. Nosek 1️⃣
C M. Vorobyov 2️⃣ C O. Lindberg
RW W. Simmonds 1️⃣ RW R. Carpenter 2️⃣
Sample: No Sample-Vorobyov is a rookie and JVR is new to the team Sample: 134:11 TOI (Nosek & Lindberg)
OFF: N/A OFF: 55 CF, 27 SCF, 9 HDCF
DEF: N/A DEF: 56 CA, 22 SCA, 9 HDCA

Analysis:

Given all the uncertainties and new faces on both teams, it might be best to avoid playing the late game. VGK1 and PHI1 should play out to a wash in a relatively low-event matchup.


Suggested Stacks

  1. 1. CBJ1
  2. 2. NSH2
  3. 3. PIT1
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Dylan has been an Associate Editor of DailyFaceoff since 2018 and a co-host of the DFO Podcast since 2015.

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