President Donald Trump laced his State of the Union speech with puffed-up numbers and partial truths Tuesday as he hailed an “economic miracle,” warned of human traffickers flooding throughout the border and appeared to put Afghanistan in the Middle East as an alternative of the place it’s, Asia.
Trump used info selectively in claiming a drop in drug costs not seen in half a century and promised the nation it will see bountiful advantages from a commerce deal that hasn’t been accredited, won’t be and in any event makes solely modest modifications from the established order.
For her part, Democrat Stacey Abrams reflected a current and misleading talking point by her get together when she slammed the Trump administration for choosing to “cage children” at the border, ignoring a follow also employed by the Obama administration to hold migrant youngsters in amenities with chain-link fencing.
Here’s a take a look at a few of the statements from State of the Union night time:
MIDDLE EAST WARS
TRUMP: “Our brave troops have now been fighting in the Middle East for almost 19 years.”
THE FACTS: Trump exaggerated the size of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The warfare in Afghanistan started in October 2001, within the aftermath of the Sept. 11 assaults. The invasion of Iraq was in March 2003. The U.S. has been at warfare for a bit more than 17 years.
Also, he refers to preventing in the Center East. Iraq is within the Middle East, however Afghanistan is in south and central Asia.
TRUMP, describing progress during the last two years: “Nearly 5 million Americans have been lifted off food stamps.”
THE FACTS: The variety of individuals receiving food stamps truly hasn’t declined that much.
Authorities knowledge present there have been 44.2 million individuals collaborating within the Supplemental Vitamin and Assistance Program in 2016, before Trump took office. In 2018, there were 40.3 million individuals collaborating in SNAP. That’s a decline of three.9 million, not the 5 million that Trump talked about.
The variety of individuals collaborating in the SNAP program peaked in 2013 and has been taking place since that point.
Trump’s last finances proposed chopping SNAP by $213 billion over 10 years. The administration also has been pushing to provide states more flexibility in implementing this system, including tightening work requirements for recipients.
ABRAMS: “The Republican tax bill rigged the system towards working individuals. Fairly than bringing back jobs, crops are closing, layoffs are looming and wages wrestle to maintain tempo with the actual value of dwelling.
THE FACTS: The financial system is doing higher within the wake of the Trump administration’s tax cuts than Abrams suggests. The number of individuals looking for unemployment advantages, a proxy for layoffs, briefly fell to a five-decade low last month. And average hourly pay is operating ahead of inflation.
TRUMP: “These (border) agents will tell you where walls go up, illegal crossings go way, way down … San Diego used to have the most illegal border crossings in our country. In response, a strong security wall was put in place. This powerful barrier almost completely ended illegal crossings … Simply put, walls work and walls save lives.”
THE FACTS: It’s much more difficult than that.
Sure, Border Patrol arrests in the San Diego sector plummeted 96 % from almost 630,000 in 1986 to barely 26,000 in 2017, a period throughout which walls have been built. But the crackdown pushed illegal crossings to less-patrolled and more remote Arizona deserts, where hundreds died in the heat. Arrests in Tucson in 2000 almost matched San Diego’s peak.
Critics say the “water-balloon effect” — build a wall in one spot and migrants will find a gap elsewhere — undermines Trump’s argument, although proponents say it only demonstrates that walls ought to be extended.
The Government Accountability Workplace reported in 2017 that the U.S. has not developed metrics that reveal how obstacles have contributed to border security.
TRUMP: “We recently imposed tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods — and now our treasury is receiving billions of dollars.”
THE FACTS: That is deceptive. Yes, cash from tariffs is going into the federal treasury, nevertheless it’s largely coming from U.S. companies and shoppers. It’s not overseas nations which are paying these import taxes by chopping a examine to the federal government.
His reference to cash coming into the treasury “now” belies the fact that tariffs return to the founding of the country. This revenue did not begin together with his elevated tariffs on some items from China.
Tariffs did produce $41.three billion in tax revenues within the last price range yr, in response to the Treasury Division. However that may be a small fraction of a federal finances that exceeds $4.1 trillion.
The tariffs paid by U.S. corporations additionally are likely to end in greater costs for shoppers, which is what occurred for washing machines after the Trump administration imposed import taxes.
TRUMP: “Our new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement — or USMCA — will replace NAFTA and deliver for American workers: bringing back our manufacturing jobs, expanding American agriculture, protecting intellectual property, and ensuring that more cars are proudly stamped with the four beautiful words: MADE IN THE USA.”
THE FACTS: It’s unlikely to do all these things, because the new settlement largely preserves the construction and substance of NAFTA. As well as, the deal has not been ratified and its possibilities in Congress are unsure.
In a single new function, the deal requires that 40 % of automobiles’ contents ultimately be made in nations that pay autoworkers no less than $16 an hour — that is, in america, or Canada, however not in Mexico. It additionally requires Mexico to pursue an overhaul of labor regulation to encourage unbiased unions that may discount for greater wages and better working circumstances for Mexicans.
Still, simply earlier than the settlement was signed, Common Motors introduced that it might lay off 14,000 staff and shut 5 crops in the USA and Canada.
Philip Levy, senior fellow at the Chicago Council on International Affairs and a trade official in Republican President George W. Bush’s White Home, says: “President Trump has seriously overhyped this agreement.”
TRUMP: “Already, as a result of my administration’s efforts, in 2018 drug prices experienced their single largest decline in 46 years.”
THE FACTS: Trump is selectively citing statistics to exaggerate what appears to be a slowdown in costs. A broader take a look at the info exhibits that drug prices are nonetheless rising, but extra reasonably. Some unbiased specialists say criticism from Trump and congressional Democrats could also be inflicting pharmaceutical corporations to point out restraint.
The Shopper Worth Index for prescribed drugs exhibits a O.6 % reduction in prices in December 2018 in comparison with December 2017, the most important drop in almost 50 years. The federal government index tracks a set of medicines including model medicine and generics.
Nevertheless, that same index confirmed a 1.6 % improve when comparing the complete 12 months of 2018 with the complete previous yr.
“The annualized number gives you a better picture,” stated economist Paul Hughes-Cromwick of Altarum, a nonprofit research group. “It could be that something quirky happened in December.”
Individually, an evaluation of brand-name drug prices by The Associated Press exhibits there were 2,712 worth increases in the first half of this January, as compared with 3,327 will increase during the same interval last yr.
The dimensions of this yr’s increases was not as pronounced. Both this yr and final, the variety of worth cuts was minuscule. The knowledge for the evaluation was offered by the health knowledge agency Elsevier.
TRUMP: “Wages are rising at the fastest pace in decades, and growing for blue collar workers, who I promised to fight for, they’re growing faster than anyone else thought possible.”
THE FACTS: That is an unsupported assertion because the info on hourly wages for personal staff solely go back to 2006, not many years.
However knowledge on wages for manufacturing staff date again to 1939 — and Trump’s claim appears to be unfounded.
Common hourly earnings for production and non-supervisory staff are up 3.4 % over the previous yr, in response to the Labor Division. Those wage positive factors have been greater as just lately as early 2009. They usually have been averaging roughly 4 % before the beginning of the Great Recession in late 2007.
There are different methods to trace wage good points — and people don’t work in Trump’s favor, both.
Adjusted for inflation, median weekly wages rose simply 0.6 % in 2018. The features in weekly wages have been 2.1 % in 2015.
ABRAMS, in the Democratic response: “We know bipartisanship could craft a 21st century immigration plan but this administration chooses to cage children and tear families apart.”
THE FACTS: The cages that Abrams mentions are literally chain-link fences and the Obama administration used them, too.
Youngsters are held behind them, inside holding Border Patrol amenities, underneath the Trump administration. As nicely, Obama’s administration detained giant numbers of unaccompanied youngsters inside chain hyperlink fences in 2014. Photographs that circulated online of youngsters in cages in the course of the peak of Trump’s family separations controversy have been truly from 2014 when Obama was in office.
Youngsters are placed in such areas by age and sex for safety causes and are held for up to 72 hours by the Border Patrol.
The Department of Homeland Security inspector common visited five detention amenities for unaccompanied youngsters on the Texas border with Mexico in late June, in the course of the peak of the furor over family separations, and located they appeared to comply with detention requirements. The federal government watchdog reported that cleanliness was inconsistent however that the youngsters had access to bogs, meals, drinks, clean bedding and hygiene gadgets.
On the peak of the family separations, about 2,400 youngsters have been separated. Since then, 118 youngsters have been separated. Immigration officers are allowed to take a toddler from a dad or mum in certain instances — critical felony fees towards a mother or father, considerations over the health and welfare of a kid or medical considerations.
That coverage has lengthy been in place and is separate from the now-suspended zero-tolerance Trump administration coverage that noticed youngsters separated from mother and father only because that they had crossed illegally.
TRUMP: “African-American, Hispanic-American and Asian-American unemployment have all reached their lowest levels ever recorded.”
THE FACTS: What he’s not saying is that the unemployment rates for all three groups have gone up since reaching document low levels.
Black unemployment reached a document low, 5.9 %, in Might, however rose to 6.8 % in January.
Latino unemployment fell to 4.4 %, its lowest ever, last October, and Asian unemployment fell to a document low of 2.2 % in Might. But Latino and Asian unemployment also have elevated, partially due to the federal government shutdown, which elevated unemployment final month.
The African-American fee continues to be almost double the jobless fee for whites, at three.5 %.
Probably the most dramatic drop in black unemployment got here beneath President Barack Obama, when it fell from a recession excessive of 16.eight % in March 2010 to 7.eight % in January 2017.
TRUMP: “Human traffickers and sex traffickers take advantage of the wide open areas between our ports of entry to smuggle thousands of young girls and women into the United States and to sell them into prostitution and modern-day slavery.”
THE FACTS: His administration has not provided proof that ladies and women are smuggled by the “thousands” throughout remote areas of the border for these functions. What has been established is almost 80 % of international trafficking victims cross via authorized ports of entry, a circulate that may not be stopped by a border wall.
Trump distorts how typically trafficking victims come from the southern border, in accordance the Counter-Trafficking Knowledge Collaborative , a worldwide hub for trafficking statistics with knowledge contributed by organizations from around the globe.
The National Human Trafficking Hotline, a venture supported by federal money and operated by the anti-trafficking group Polaris , started monitoring particular person sufferer data in 2015. From January via June 31, 2018, it tracked 35,000 potential victims. Of these, there was a close to equal distribution between foreigners on one hand and U.S. residents and authorized everlasting residents on the other.
A lot of the labor trafficking victims have been overseas, and a lot of the sex trafficking victims have been U.S. residents. Of overseas nationals, Mexico had probably the most steadily trafficked.
TRUMP: “In just over two years since the election, we have launched an unprecedented economic boom — a boom that has rarely been seen before. There’s been nothing like it. … An economic miracle is taking place in the United States.”
THE FACTS: The president is vastly exaggerating what has been a light enchancment in progress and hiring. The financial system is healthy however not almost top-of-the-line in U.S. history.
The financial system expanded at an annual price of 3.8 % final spring and summer time, a strong pace. Nevertheless it was just the fastest in four years. Within the late 1990s, progress topped 4 % for four straight years, a degree it has not but reached beneath Trump. And progress even reached 7.2 % in 1984.
Virtually all unbiased economists anticipate slower progress this yr as the impact of the Trump administration’s tax cuts fade, commerce tensions and slower international progress hold back exports, and higher interest rates make it costlier to borrow to buy automobiles and homes.
WOMEN IN WORKFORCE
TRUMP: “All Americans can be proud that we have more women in the workforce than ever before.”
THE FACTS: In fact, there are more ladies working than ever before. However that’s as a result of population progress — and never one thing that Trump can credit to any his policies.
The large question is whether or not a higher proportion of girls is working or looking for a job than at any level in history. And on this rely, ladies have enjoyed better occasions.
Ladies’s labor pressure participation fee right now’s 57.5 %, in line with the Labor Department. The speed has ticked up just lately, however it was greater in 2012 and peaked in 2000 at roughly 60 %.
TRUMP: “We have unleashed a revolution in American energy – the United States is now the number one producer of oil and natural gas in the world.”
THE FACTS: True, if “we” means Trump and his current predecessors. It’s not all to Trump’s credit score. The federal government says the U.S. turned the world’s prime pure fuel producer in 2013, underneath Barack Obama’s administration.
The U.S. now leads the world in oil production, too, underneath Trump. That’s largely because of a growth in production from shale oil, which additionally started beneath Obama.
SOURCE AP FACT CHECK
This entry was posted on February sixth 2019 at 7:33am/07:33 and is filed underneath Stay Information Column 1, Politics. You’ll be able to comply with any responses to this entry by way of the RSS 2.0 feed.
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