On Tuesday, we looked at ten players across baseball that should have the ability to rebound from 2018 down years in 2019. At this time, we’re going to take a look at ten players who had good, nice, or wonderful seasons in 2018 that they gained’t have the ability to replicate in 2019. This isn’t saying that the players can be awful, just that they gained’t be nearly as good as they have been a yr in the past.
C: Kurt Suzuki, Nationals
Kurt Suzuki, career with Braves: 186 video games, 31 HR, .276/.341/.485
Kurt Suzuki, profession all over the place else: 1,208 video games, 83 HR, .256/.311/.372
I feel it’s ridiculous to say that Suzuki will wrestle in 2019 simply because he’s not with the Braves, but one thing clearly clicked during his time in Atlanta that it hasn’t elsewhere throughout his career. Now, Suzuki heads to the Nationals for a second go-around in DC, and his production noticeably dropped off from 2017 to 2018 with the Braves, together with his ISO going from .254 to .173, his triple slash falling throughout the board (together with his slugging proportion falling by a whopping 92 factors), and his BABIP, walk price, and strikeout price truly all *enhancing*.
Suzuki is now 35, and he’ll be splitting time behind the plate with Yan Gomes in Washington, a a lot better defender, and could lose even more enjoying time to Gomes than he did last yr to Tyler Flowers, another nice defender. I feel we’ve seen one of the best of Suzuki, and he’s not going to strategy the highs of his 2017-18 peak once more.
1B: Jesus Aguilar, Brewers
The 28-year previous Aguilar had a breakout campaign in 2018, slashing .274/.352/.539 with 35 homers. He’s an unquestioned masher at the plate, but 2018 might characterize his excessive water mark. Why? Nicely, for starters, almost 1 / 4 of the fly balls he hit final yr left the park. His 23.8% HR/FB was 11th in all of baseball, and the main league common is 12.7%. Now, this can be a sustainable trait, because someone like Giancarlo Stanton has by no means been underneath 20% during his time in the majors, however it does fluctuate considerably from yr to yr. Aguilar has shown no signs that he can replicate this yr after yr, provided that he has fewer than 1,000 career plate appearances to his identify.
Aguilar also dropped off in the second half, an indication that perhaps the league is catching up to him. Within the first half of 2018, he slashed .298/.373/.621 with 24 of his homers. In the second half, he homered simply 11 occasions (in 66 fewer plate appearances) and slashed .245/.324/.436. That’s a dramatic dropoff – Aguilar went from top-of-the-line hitters in baseball to a league common one. I don’t assume he’s going to strategy his general 2018 stats.
2B: Scooter Gennett, Reds
Scooter Gennett, profession with Reds: 295 video games, 50 HR, .303/.351/.508
Scooter Gennett, career with Brewers: 456 games, 35 HR, .279/.318/.420
Gennett has become a unique participant in Cincinnati, so much so that the identify “Scooter” actually doesn’t appear applicable. His energy dropped off over his second yr with the Reds, although he was truly a better general participant thanks to enhancements in his stroll price, strikeout fee, batting common, OBP, and protection. I truly assume Gennett goes to still be a great player in 2019, however I also anticipate a dropoff for a couple of reasons.
First, it’s his walk yr. He’s going to be urgent to perform at a excessive degree in order to cash in on the free agent market this winter. Second, there’s going to be more strain on the Reds following their huge offseason, with expectations rising to the purpose the place a sub-.500 season is not acceptable. Third, I feel Gennett’s going to get jerked around in the lineup a bit extra this yr because of the presence of Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig – he’s not the unquestioned second or third-best hitter in the lineup after Joey Votto (and Eugenio Suarez, for that matter) anymore. Lots of this isn’t his fault, but the issues are there, they usually’re not going away in 2019.
SS: Jurickson Profar, A’s
That is somewhat of a cop out, because Profar is seemingly going to be beginning at second for the A’s, and final yr, he performed throughout the diamond for the Rangers, but logged probably the most innings at brief. The rationale he’s on this record is straightforward – he couldn’t keep both wholesome and productive until 2018. Final yr, Profar played in 146 video games for the Rangers and slashed .254/.335/.458 with 20 homers. Prior to 2018, he played in a total of 206 major league video games (courting again to 2012), slashing .229/.309/.329 with 12 homers. Profar spent almost all of 2012 in the minors, spent the primary month and a half of 2013 in the minors, missed all of 2014, missed almost all of 2015, spent the first month and a half of 2016 in the minors, was up and down in 2017 and spent extra time in the minors than the majors, and eventually spent all of 2018 in the majors whereas avoiding major damage.
Whew. That’s a number of movement. I hope he stays healthy, but I’d like to see it two years in a row earlier than I guess on it occurring. If he can play 140 games for Oakland this yr, he can simply replicate his stats from 2018….but I don’t assume he’ll.
3B: Johan Camargo, Braves
Camargo is a sufferer of circumstance for the Braves in 2019 – they signed Josh Donaldson to man third base each day, relegating Camargo to a bench position. The Braves appear dedicated to get Camargo enjoying time this yr, however there gained’t be consistency in spelling Donaldson, Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, and (hopefully) Nick Markakis now and again. Camargo broke out in 2018 with 19 homers and a .272/.349/.457 slash line, smashing each righties and lefties and hitting pretty persistently throughout the months of the season.
But once more, the circumstances for getting Camargo enjoying time (and repeating his 2018 performance) require another player to wrestle or get harm, which isn’t unattainable, however is totally out of Camargo’s control. If he gets enjoying time, he can do what he did in 2018 once more in 2019. If he doesn’t, his season might find yourself as a disappointment.
OF: Brandon Nimmo, Mets
Nimmo lastly obtained regular enjoying time in 2018 with the Mets and shined, hitting .263/.404/.483 with 17 dingers. He bounced across the Mets outfield at all three positions due to accidents, however New York might run into a glut of outfielders sooner or later, with Yoenis Cespedes ultimately expected to return after heel surgery, Michael Conforto entrenched in a place, Keon Broxton and Juan Lagares both serving as better defensive outfielders than Nimmo, and first basemen Peter Alonso and Dominic Smith still ready for their shot at each day jobs (and since they both can’t play first base each day, a corner outfield spot might be a touchdown level).
Nimmo’s enjoying time might also take successful because of his platoon splits. Towards lefties, Nimmo is slashing .226/.338/.350 in his major league career. Towards righties, these numbers soar to .277/.408./484. The Mets did an excellent job at limiting Nimmo’s plate appearances towards lefties final yr (151 over 80 games), and given the shortage of top-tier lefty starters in the NL East (Patrick Corbin and um…Sean Newcomb?), he shouldn’t be restrained too much in those all-too-important divisional games. Out of everyone on this listing, I feel Nimmo is the one who might defy my expectations probably the most and put collectively a season most comparable to his 2018.
OF: Nick Markakis, Braves
Nick Markakis actually wasn’t good in his first three years as a Courageous, with minimal power, an empty batting common, and mediocre. Then hastily in 2018, he drags his slugging proportion over .400 for the first time since 2012, delivers a robust batting common and OBP, and appears like a professional beginning nook outfielder! What the hell is that this?
Nicely, it’s a scorching start to the season, and never much else. Markakis had a .701 OPS in the second half of 2018, and .673 OPS over the ultimate two months of the season (with simply two homers in these final two months). His power surge came early in the yr, with half of those seven homers coming in the first six weeks of the season. He did not sustain it, and at age 35, I wouldn’t anticipate him to abruptly rediscover the six week power stroke that made his 2018 look palatable.
OF: Matt Kemp, Reds
Throughout Matt Kemp’s 13 yr career, he’s played with the Dodgers, Padres, Braves, and now, the Reds. With the Padres and Braves over three seasons, he slashed .269/.310/.470. With the Dodgers over ten years, together with most of his prime, he slashed .292/.348/.494, together with .290/.338/.481. After three fairly mediocre years with the Padres and Braves, Kemp discovered the fountain of youth sporting Dodger blue once more last yr, just for LA to ship him off to Cincinnati in an enormous movement of salaries on each side of the equation. But Kemp’s robust 2018 was bolstered by a fantastic begin to the season – he hit .310/.352/.522 with 15 homers in the primary half, and .255/.313/.406 with simply six homers in the second half. In the first half, he was Prime Dodger Nice Matt Kemp. Within the second half, he was…overpaid Padre and Courageous Matt Kemp.
In actuality, Kemp has been the latter model of himself for a lot of the final four years. The Matt Kemp that fell one homer shy of a 40/40 season is gone. Hell, the Matt Kemp that played middle subject day by day has been gone for years, and doubtless by no means truly existed. He doesn’t convey a lot of anything to the Reds lineup apart from power, and Cincinnati has that in spades. Reds followers shouldn’t look in the direction of the 2018 Matt Kemp for their expectations about him going into 2019. That guy is a mirage.
SP: Jon Lester, Cubs
Jon Lester was a worse pitcher in 2018 than he was in 2017, and he gained 5 extra games while decreasing his ERA by a full run. That’s fun. He’s now 35, coming off a season together with his lowest strikeout price since 2012, highest walk price since 2011, and his lowest ground ball fee and average fastball velocity since 2007. That’s not a very good combination!
Lester additionally obtained somewhat fortunate final yr with an 80.three% strand price (second-highest of his profession) and a .290 BABIP. If he simply performs like he did last yr and each the strand price and BABIP strategy the league common, his ERA is going to rise and he’s going to win fewer games. If his performance continues to degrade *and* the strand price and BABIP strategy the league average, his ERA might soar even larger. Provided that the NL Central is harder this yr, thanks to the Reds truly making an attempt this offseason and the Brewers, Cardinals, and Pirates all coming off above .500 season, success inside the division might be harder for Lester to find.
RP: Jeremy Jeffress, Brewers
2018 was a career yr for Jeffress, who had a 1.29 ERA over 76 2/3 innings for the Brewers while hanging out 89 and strolling 27. It was an unimaginable yr for him, but in addition one which he in all probability gained’t repeat in 2019. Jeffress was somewhat fortunate this previous season, allowing a .249 BABIP regardless of a worrying 37.4% exhausting hit fee (to be truthful, you do anticipate a better exhausting hit price from relievers, due to the elevated velocity of their pitches). Jeffress additionally stranded 92.9% of baserunners allowed, which was the very best among all relievers with at the least 50 innings pitched on the season and almost 20 proportion points larger than the MLB common for all pitchers.
Jeffress additionally relies on floor balls (56.4%, just outdoors the highest ten for certified relievers) quite a bit, and the Brewers shaky protection looks like it’s going to get shakier this yr with Mike Moustakas, who has by no means performed at second base, taking up at second base. Craig Counsell will probably convey on a defensive sub late in the sport for Moustakas, but when not, that would end result in Jeffress permitting more hits. And like I stated yesterday about Ken Giles, relievers can have outings snowball on them fairly shortly. Jeffress prevented these snowball outings in 2018, permitting only one run from the start of the yr until Memorial Day, zero runs from Labor Day till the top of the season, runs on again to back appearances simply as soon as all yr, and multiple run in an outing during one recreation. He obtained very fortunate last yr, and I feel it’s most unlikely he stays that fortunate this yr.