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Predicting the next top-100 player for all 30 teams

Predicting the next top-100 player for all 30 teams
This would possibly not shock you when you’ve got last yr’s standings memorized, however the premium expertise in baseball is not exactly unfold evenly throughout the sport. The Yankees had 9 gamers crack the MLB Rank prime 100, the Astros had seven (including six in the prime 40) as did the Purple Sox, and eight different teams had at the least 5. In the meantime, 4 teams had no gamers in the prime 100 and eight others had only one. That helps explain why we had three 100-win teams and three 100-loss teams.

I don’t know if this expertise dispersion is a historic anomaly, however I do know the degree of talent is unbelievably excessive lately. As one instance, Justin Turner comes in at No. 53 and all he has accomplished the past three seasons is end ninth, eighth and 14th in the MVP voting. That’s a reasonably good 53rd-best ballplayer in the majors. The younger talent is exceptional, with the likes of Ronald Acuna Jr., Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. all making the prime 100 for the first time — in Guerrero’s case, despite the fact that he is yet to play a recreation in the majors.

That leads us to this question: Who’s next? For every staff, I’ve nominated one candidate to be the next player from that franchise to seem on MLB Rank — not necessarily in 2020, but sooner or later in the future. The only rule: The player can’t be on this yr’s record — so Mike Trout for the Phillies or Gerrit Cole for the Dodgers don’t rely, as much enjoyable as that might be to take a position. It is OK if a player has appeared on a earlier MLB Rank prime 100.

The teams are ordered based mostly on points earned in the 2019 rankings: 100 factors for the No. 1 player, 99 for No. 2 and so on, down to at least one level for No. 100. So, argue away …

(7 gamers, 480 points) — Alex Bregman (6), Jose Altuve (10), Justin Verlander (22), Carlos Correa (27), Gerrit Cole (30), George Springer (37), Roberto Osuna (95)

Josh James, RHP

You may need expected to see prime prospects Forrest Whitley or Kyle Tucker right here, however both have been already despatched back to minor league camp and won’t see Houston for a couple of months, in order that they’re more on a 2021 or 2022 timetable to crack the prime 100. In the meantime, I’m all in on James and his 100 mph fastball. His spring training was slowed by a strained groin and he is simply getting again on the mound, so he won’t be prepared for the opening rotation, but when he’s, watch out.

(9 players, 437 factors) — Aaron Decide (11), Luis Severino (23), Giancarlo Stanton (31), James Paxton (43), Aroldis Chapman (47), Gary Sanchez (67), Gleyber Torres (78), Miguel Andujar (84), Aaron Hicks (88)

Masahiro Tanaka, RHP

That is fascinating. Over the past three seasons, Paxton is 29-18 with a three.52 ERA over 417 innings, while Tanaka — pitching in rather more of a hitters’ park — is 39-22 with a 3.83 ERA over 534 innings. Yet Paxton comes in at No. 43 and Tanaka is unranked. Don’t be stunned if Tanaka has the higher season and cracks the prime 100 next yr.

(6 players, 412 factors) — Francisco Lindor (eight), Jose Ramirez (14), Corey Kluber (16), Trevor Bauer (39), Carlos Carrasco (44), Brad Hand (73)

Mike Clevinger, RHP

Perhaps if Clevinger acquired into more fights on Twitter and posted videos of his workouts he’d rank greater. Over the past two seasons, Clevinger has quietly posted a three.05 ERA in 321 innings, whereas his more publicized teammate Bauer has a 3.20 ERA over 351 innings. I am not necessarily saying Clevinger is best, but 2018 was Bauer’s first season with an ERA beneath four.00. Look for extra good things from Clevinger and perhaps a better top-100 ranking next yr than Bauer.

(7 players, 405 factors) — Mookie Betts (2), Chris Sale (9), J.D. Martinez (17), Andrew Benintendi (50), Xander Bogaerts (57), David Worth (69), Nathan Eovaldi (98)

Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP

Rafael Devers definitely has top-100 potential, however his protection and plate discipline will maintain him under that bar for at the very least another yr. The Purple Sox feel Rodriguez has the potential to put every part collectively this yr and turn into a rotation anchor. He has been working on a new slider to go together with his 93 mph fastball and excellent changeup. Numerous injuries — knee surgery in 2017, an ankle damage last yr — have limited him to a profession excessive of 24 begins, so he needs to remain healthy and get to 180-plus innings.

(6 gamers, 354 factors) — Max Scherzer (three), Anthony Rendon (32), Juan Soto (35), Stephen Strasburg (46), Patrick Corbin (52), Trea Turner (54)

Victor Robles, CF

Why did the Nationals finally really feel snug letting Bryce Harper walk? Because they know Robles is ready to step in. Heck, Robles may need cracked this record this yr if he hadn’t injured his elbow early final season trying a diving catch in Triple-A. He is a career .300 hitter in the minors, tasks as a plus defender in middle, will steal some bases and has power potential if he adds a bit of extra launch angle. However even when he’s just a 15-homer man, he has the all-around recreation to grow to be an All-Star. ZiPS already tasks a strong 2.5 WAR for his rookie season.

(5 gamers, 314 factors) — Bryce Harper (15), Aaron Nola (24), J.T. Realmuto (28), Rhys Hoskins (45), Jean Segura (79)

Nick Pivetta, RHP

The Phillies have purpose to be optimistic past Harper and all their different offseason acquisitions. Acquired from the Nationals for Jonathan Papelbon in 2015, Pivetta ought to be near the prime of any record of potential breakout pitchers. The stuff is there as evidenced by a 27.1 % strikeout price that ranked 13th among certified starters — one spot ahead of Nola. The question: Was his .326 BABIP the results of the porous Phillies protection, or does he simply lack the fastball command to make the leap to the next degree? He may additionally be clever to think about ditching his two-seamer (batters hit .379/.471/.569 towards it). He is not a lock to enhance, but he’s the greatest “next” selection for the Phillies given the farm system lacks can’t-miss prospects.

(6 players, 300 points) — Clayton Kershaw (41), Walker Buehler (42), Corey Seager (49), Justin Turner (53), Kenley Jansen (60), Cody Bellinger (61)

Gavin Lux, 2B/SS

Look, if Max Muncy rakes once more — .263/.391/.582 with 35 house runs in 2018 — he’ll crack this record next yr. I do consider in his bat, as his potential to regulate the strike zone should permit him to tap into his power, however some regression in the residence run price is predicted (he had the 10th-highest fee of residence runs to fly balls), and it isn’t sure how much he’ll play towards lefties. So I am going to go together with certainly one of my favourite minor leaguers in Lux, who had a breakout season, hitting .324/.399/.514 at age 20 between Class A and Double-A. I really like the bat-to-ball capability and the left-handed bat, although he’ll in all probability wind up at second base.

(6 players, 277 points) — Jacob deGrom (four), Noah Syndergaard (25), Edwin Diaz (36), Robinson Cano (82), Zack Wheeler (83), Michael Conforto (99)

Brandon Nimmo, CF

Nimmo turned the first Mets hitter to submit a .400 OBP since David Wright in 2007; it was just the 11th .400 OBP season in staff historical past. He may be a bit of stretched on protection in middle subject, but when he posts another .400 OBP and 4.four WAR season, he’ll easily crack the prime 100.

(5 gamers, 228 points) — Kris Bryant (21), Javier Baez (29), Anthony Rizzo (38), Willson Contreras (92), Jon Lester (97)

Yu Darvish, RHP

Kyle Hendricks stays criminally underrated with WAR figures of 5.4, three.5 and three.5 the past three seasons, good for 10th-best among beginning pitchers in complete WAR over that span. MLB Rank tends to reward peak worth greater than consistency, nevertheless, and Hendricks is unlikely to return close to the 2.13 ERA he had in 2016. Anyway, Darvish’s first season in a Cubs uniform was a catastrophe, but I am banking on a comeback and the massive strikeout totals that jazz up his fame.

(four gamers, 228 points) — Christian Yelich (7), Josh Hader (33), Lorenzo Cain (56), Yasmani Grandal (80)

Keston Hiura, 2B

Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff shall be intriguing to observe as they move into the rotation, but let’s examine if their stuff performs up in addition to it did out of the bullpen final season. Hiura is the group’s prime prospect, the ninth general decide in 2017 out of UC Irvine with a extremely regarded bat. He reached Double-A final yr and hit .293/.357/.464 between two levels with 13 house runs in 485 at-bats. I might wish to see him improve his stroll price (just 36 walks in 535 plate appearances), and he’ll really should hit as his glove isn’t thought-about special.

(5 gamers, 225 factors) — Nolan Arenado (5), Trevor Story (48), Charlie Blackmon (55), German Marquez (81), Kyle Freeland (91)

Brendan Rodgers, SS/2B

I am still a Jon Grey believer, but I am going to go together with the more apparent selection in Rodgers, the workforce’s prime prospect. I’m not utterly bought on Rodgers: The one minor league stop where he has put up monster numbers was at Class A Lancaster, which is like Coors Subject on steroids. He does not stroll much or run much, and with Trevor Story entrenched at shortstop, his future place with the Rockies can be second base, which puts much more strain on the bat. He’ll spend this season at Triple-A and figures to compete with Garrett Hampson and Ryan McMahon for the beginning job in 2020. Hmm, perhaps Grey does put it all together and beats Rodgers into the prime 100.

(four players, 218 factors) — Freddie Freeman (18), Ronald Acuna Jr. (20), Ozzie Albies (58), Josh Donaldson (90)

Touki Toussaint, RHP

Mike Foltynewicz couldn’t quite crack the prime 100 even after a 2.85 ERA in 2018, however perhaps the voters have been right. His season was closely BABIP influenced, and now he is out with a sore elbow and will miss his Opening Day start. Ender Inciarte (No. 98 last yr) has an argument as a three-time Gold Glove winner in middle subject, however I am going with considered one of the Braves’ young pitchers. Toussaint is not more likely to be an overnight sensation, and he may even end up in the bullpen long run, however his stuff is ridiculous, and if he puts it collectively he has extra upside than more polished arms Kyle Wright or Mike Soroka.

(four players, 179 factors) — Paul Goldschmidt (13), Matt Carpenter (40), Miles Mikolas (76), Marcell Ozuna (96)

Jack Flaherty, RHP

This one is straightforward. I really like Harrison Bader, however he’s in all probability extra Kevin Pillar than peak Kevin Kiermaier, whereas Flaherty has Cy Young potential — the employees ace the Cardinals stored anticipating Carlos Martinez to develop into. As a rookie, Flaherty’s strikeout fee ranked 10th amongst pitchers with a minimum of 150 innings and his .199 batting common allowed ranked ninth. He has seemed sharp already this spring, together with one outing when he fanned 9 in 4 innings. Flaherty shouldn’t only crack the prime 100, but I look for him to crack the prime 50.

(four players, 169 factors) — Matt Chapman (34), Blake Treinen (51), Khris Davis (63), Matt Olson (87)

Stephen Piscotty, RF

He is not flashy, but Piscotty hit .267/.331/.491 with 27 house runs and 41 doubles, including a .272/.337/.536 line in the second half. His stroll fee fell from 13.0 % in 2017 to six.9 %, so if he can reverse that and improve his OBP, he’ll slide into the back finish of the prime 100.

(3 gamers, 164 points) — Mike Trout (1), Andrelton Simmons (64), Shohei Ohtani (74)

Jo Adell, OF

Justin Upton is definitely able to top-100 numbers in any given season, or perhaps Matt Harvey finds a time machine and travels again to 2015, but Adell, a consensus top-10 general prospect, is the greatest guess. He reached Double-A last yr at 19 after starting in the Midwest League, shocking even the Angels together with his speedy ascent after they tabbed him with the 10th decide in the 2017 draft. He has already grown into his big-boy body, and he has future star written all over him. He might attain the majors later this yr and staff with Trout in the Angels outfield in 2020 and perhaps crack this record in 2022 … with hopes that Trout continues to be alongside him.

(5 players, 130 factors) — Joey Votto (26), Eugenio Suarez (77), Raisel Iglesias (85), Yasiel Puig (93), Scooter Gennett (94)

Nick Senzel, CF/IF

Keith Regulation’s No. 6 general prospect is the logical reply right here. Senzel has finished nothing but rake since getting drafted second general in 2016 with a .314/.390/.513 line in the minors. He is a pure third baseman, but the Reds try him out in middle subject this spring, profiting from his athleticism to fill the staff’s largest gap. The apparent concern is well being. He missed time final yr with vertigo and a broken finger, then had elbow surgical procedure to remove bone spurs.

(1 player, 89 factors) — Blake Snell (12)

Tommy Pham, LF

It speaks to the impressive depth the Rays have built that they gained 90 video games final yr and yet only one in every of their players cracked the prime 100. Pham completed 11th in the MVP voting with the Cardinals in 2017, however an terrible two-month droop in Might and June final yr despatched him to Tampa, where he posted a 1.071 OPS in 39 video games. Pham was No. 78 on this listing last yr, and I’m taking the over on his 2.7 WAR projection from ZiPS for another top-100 rating.

(1 player, 82 factors) — Manny Machado (19)

Fernando Tatis Jr., SS

Look, it could possibly be virtually any of the Padres’ promising kids: Joey Lucchesi or Luis Urias or Francisco Mejia or Franmil Reyes or Chris Paddack. Heck, perhaps Wil Myers has a bounce-back season, and let’s not overlook Eric Hosmer was on this listing 12 months in the past. But everyone seems to be already drooling a few Machado-Tatis left aspect of the infield, with good cause. Tatis will need a while in Triple-A, and he’ll need to curb some swing-and-miss points, but he must be a star by 2021.

(2 gamers, 69 factors) — Buster Posey (62), Madison Bumgarner (71)

Joey Bart, C

I mean … look, Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford aren’t washed up, however you’ll be able to’t actually venture them as top-100 gamers shifting ahead. Perhaps Bart is the next Buster Posey, but he’s a catcher getting into his first full professional season, so he’s several years away. Considering Bumgarner might get traded and Posey is coming back from hip surgery, it is attainable the Giants have no one on this listing next yr.

(2 gamers, 36 points) — Jameson Taillon (66), Starling Marte (100)

Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B

Hayes ranked 18th on Keith Regulation’s prospect listing, because of a glove that Regulation stated makes Hayes “a likely 80-grade defender at third base with unbelievable hands and instincts.” He is still growing into his energy — he hit seven residence runs in Double-A — however he controls the strike zone and will hit for common. He is a singular prospect, however it appears the worst-case state of affairs is peak Placido Polanco, and that’s a top-100 player.

(1 player, 36 factors) — Zack Greinke (65)

Robbie Ray, LHP

Ray was on this final a yr ago at No. 49, however scuffled by means of some injuries and went 6-2 with a 3.93 ERA over 24 begins. (And, sure, solely getting eight selections was weird; he is the first pitcher with that many begins and so few selections in MLB historical past, not together with Tampa Bay opener Ryne Stanek). The stuff continues to be filthy — 165 Okay’s in 123 innings — and he finished robust with a 3.23 ERA in the second half.

(1 player, 33 factors) — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (68)

Danny Jansen, C

This can be a robust one since Vladdy Jr. would have been the apparent selection besides he’s the rare rookie to crack the prime 100. Marcus Stroman is a bounce-back risk, but when he pitches properly he is a candidate to be traded in July, so he may make this listing in 2020 for a unique workforce. Let’s go together with Jansen, the uncommon catching prospect who can hit. He posted an .884 OPS in 2017 and .863 at Triple-A in 2018. He controls the strike zone (44 walks, 49 strikeouts), and if he can submit an .800 OPS in the majors, he will make some All-Star teams.

(1 player, 31 factors) — Mitch Haniger (70)

Yusei Kikuchi, LHP

This offseason, the Mariners traded away 4 players in the prime 100 — Edwin Diaz, James Paxton, Jean Segura and Robinson Cano. With them, Seattle would have ranked 13th in our factors system, between the Braves and Cardinals, however as an alternative rank 23rd with its lone consultant. Additionally they do not have a transparent candidate to crack this listing any time quickly. Marco Gonzales is a pleasant midrotation starter, and Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn are good pitching prospects, however hardly positive things. Jarred Kelenic, acquired in the Diaz commerce, was just drafted final yr and is years away. So how about Kikuchi? He is a cultured veteran lefty, and plenty of Japanese pitchers seem to do nicely their first season in the majors. He might sneak his approach in to the backside of the prime 100 next yr.

(1 player, 29 points) — Jose Berrios (72)

Byron Buxton, CF

Coming off a wild-card berth in 2017, the Twins had three players on this record final yr: Buxton (No. 56), Brian Dozier (No. 60) and Miguel Sano (No. 77). Issues could not have gone worse for that trio as they mixed for just Zero.2 WAR and every battled injuries as the Twins fell underneath .500. Buxton’s projections are wildly unpredictable, however we all know he can play middle area. If he stays healthy and hits even a bit of bit, he is a beneficial player.

(1 player, 26 points) — Whit Merrifield (75)

Adalberto Mondesi, SS

Mondesi is already a top-100 fantasy player heading into 2019 because of his means to swipe 50 luggage, but I’m not bought on him reaching the prime 100 on this listing simply but. He had a horrible strikeout-to-walk ratio of 77-11, and batted-ball knowledge stated he was fortunate to supply an OPS of .804. Nonetheless, he can run and his defensive metrics have been above common.

(1 player, 12 factors) — Jose Abreu (89)

Eloy Jimenez, RF

For the second straight yr, Abreu is the lone White Sox player on the record, and this rating is fairly beneficiant given his mediocre 1.7-WAR campaign in 2018. The rebuild has gone slower than expected as kids like Yoan Moncada and Lucas Giolito have struggled and Michael Kopech had Tommy John surgical procedure in August. Jimenez, nevertheless, seems like the real deal — Keith Regulation’s No. 5 prospect. He is the uncommon energy prospect who does not strike out much, and he is ready to make a direct influence in 2019.

No one

Jose Leclerc, RHP

Nine aid pitchers made the prime 100, however not Leclerc, who had a 1.56 ERA and was the hardest pitcher to hit (.126 average, one residence run) in 2018. The Rangers just signed him to a four-year, $14.75 extension that additionally consists of two choice years. Leclerc ought to make that contract seem like a steal. Then once more, baseball history is affected by aid pitchers who had 50 nice innings, and Leclerc is one season removed from walking 40 batters in 45 innings.

No one

Casey Mize, RHP

I really needed to record Miguel Cabrera, however he has been value minus-0.2 WAR the previous two seasons. At age 36, you possibly can’t really predict an enormous comeback — but that doesn’t mean he can’t have one. Let’s go together with Mize, last yr’s No. 1 general decide who ought to advance shortly by means of the minors.

No one

Brian Anderson, 3B/RF

Anderson had three.9 WAR as a rookie final yr — a better determine than Juan Soto, Walker Buehler, Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar. He is not flashy, but he hit .273, has doubles power, attracts some walks and did nicely enjoying two positions. All he must do is improve somewhat bit across the board. The ZiPS projection has him at 2.7 WAR and not enhancing at the plate — he does flip 26 in Might — but I feel there’s top-100 potential here.

No one

DL Corridor, LHP

It is attainable the next top-100 player for the Orioles is not even in the organization yet. Corridor is the only prospect to crack Keith’s prime 100 (at No. 63) after dominating the South Atlantic League in his first full professional season. Nonetheless, it is a great distance from low A to the majors, so he is a number of years from making any impression.

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