ROME, Jul 17 2018 (IPS) – Based on the newest statistics, the entire immigrants movement for what goes of 2018 is 50.000 individuals, towards 186.768 final yr, 1.259.955 in 2016, and 1.327.825 in 2015. There’s such an astonishing distinction between the truth and the perceptions that it’s clear that we want to one of probably the most sensible manipulations of historical past.
The final survey, made on 23.000 residents of France, Germany, Italy, UK, US and Sweden, exhibits an unlimited disinformation. In 5 of these nations, individuals consider that immigrants are 3 times larger than in actuality. Italians assume they’re 30% of the inhabitants when they’re 10%, a mean which is decrease than the media of the European Union.
The Swedes are these nearer to actuality: they assume immigrants are 30%, when in truth they’re 20%. And Italians assume that 50% of the immigrants are Muslim, when the truth is it’s 30%, conversely, 60% of the immigrants are Christian, and Italians assume they’re 30%. And in all 6 nations residents assume that immigrants are poorer and with out schooling or knowledges, and subsequently a heavy monetary burden. Italians assume that 40% of the immigrants are jobless, when it’s near 10%, not totally different from the overall price. Then, the seventh report on the financial impression of Immigration, from Basis Leonessa that based mostly its analysis on the statistics of the Italian Institute of Statistics, introduced some completely ignored details. The two.four million immigrants in Italy have produced 130 billion euro, or eight.9% of the Gross Inner Product: an quantity bigger than the FIP from Hungary, Slovakia and Croatia. Within the final 5 years, corporations began by immigrants have develop into 25.eight of the entire, with 570.000 corporations, or 9.four% of the whole. The director of the Pension Italian system, Boeri, stated within the Parliament that immigrants give to the system 11.5 billion, greater than what they value. He additionally careworn that Italy is having a demographic disaster, with seven delivery for eleven demise.
Properly, Salvini, the rising Italian chief, who has based mostly all his political success on making immigrants the best menace to Italy, answered with a twitter: Boeri lives in Mars. And that was the top of the story. For greater than 50% of the Italians, Salvini twitter was extra conclusive than statistics.
Similar has occurred with the outgoing Director Common of the Worldwide Institute for Migration, Swing., that quoted a research carried out by the IOM and McKinsey International Institute “determined that although only 3.5% of the world’s population are migrants, they are producing nine percent of the global wealth measured in GDP terms, which is more than four percent than if they stayed at home”. This didn’t make any impression on Trump electors, white rural and pink collars, who’re satisfied that immigration is a menace to the nation: whereas all of them come from immigrants…
In different phrases, information are irrelevant. Perceptions rely extra. Allow us to take Germany, the place Merkel is being weakened by the immigration situation, barely escaping a revolt of her minister of inside, Seehofer, who’s the chief of the Christian Social Union, the sister social gathering of Bavaria of the CDU, Merkel’s get together.
Gladly the shy and timid Trump come to Seehofer’s assist, by twitting “the Germans are against their government because of its immigration policy who has brought to an increase in crimes”. The truth that in Germany there’s a robust lower in crime, of course is irrelevant for someone who has made greater than three.750 false statements, over its 38.187 tweets (as on the 14th of July.). Trumps twitters have 53.111.505 followers (at July 15th)- Properly, the whole circulation of the 1.331 dailies newspapers within the US, is near 62 million. However the complete circulation of the 100 largest dailies is under 10 million copies. So, no matter they write is massively overwhelmed nu Trump twitters…And Trump just isn’t alone in his marketing campaign…he’s aligned with Orban of Hungary, Salvini from Italy, Kazynscky from Poland, Kurz from Austria, Pellegrini from Slovaquia, Zeman from Chechia, all in energy; of course we now have these within the wings, Le Pen from France, Farage from Nice Britain and so on for almost each European nation, with the exception of Spain and Portugal. All collectively, they’ve been utilizing immigration, nationalism and xenophobia as the brand new “alternative right’s tools for success.
Let us go back to the case of Germany, Bavaria, who threatens Berlin’s government, is the richest state of Germany, with a population of 12.240 million people. Munich is the third largest city, after Berlin and Hamburg, with 1.400.000 people, and is the second largest employer in the country, and has attracted immigrants, which are all together less than 200.000. The local daily, the Suddeutsche Zeitung, estimates Muslim at 32.000.
The Alternative fur Deutschland, the extreme right -wing party that in the last elections got 13% of the votes (and 92 Seats in the Parliament,) is based basically in an antiimmigrant platform. In a poll in March narrowly surpassed the center-left Social Democrats for the first time in history. The poll by Insa, commissioned by Bild newspaper, showed the AfD at 16 percent support compared to the SPD at 15.5 percent — a new low for what has traditionally been one of Germany’s largest parties.
AfD in the last polls appears to win over CSU in Bavaria, where Muslim immigrants are rare. But the main basis for AFD come from the old East Germany, where immigrants are one fourth of those in West Germany. So, there is no rational link between reacting to presence of immigrants and vote. AFD gets more votes where there are fewer immigrants.
CDU runs now frantically to extreme right wing, xenophobe positions, so to do not lose to the Afd. It will probably loose anyhow. History shows us that voters always prefer to vote the original than copies. But Germans, and Bavarians, are thought to be rational people. Statistics are clear. Each year there are 300.000 less working people. Of the 80.6 million Germans, only 61% is in working age. In 2050, it will shrink to 51%, and those older than 65 will increase from 21% to 33%. Birth rate in Germany is 1.5%; to have a constant population you need a birth rate of 2.1%. And the immigrant’s huge influx has increased the birth rate to a modest 1.59%. Immigrants tend to imitate local trends and do not have many children. Therefore, it is clear to all, that in two decades productivity will decline dramatically (some say 30%), because of less people working, and there will be not enough payers to keep the pension and social security system going. It will be the end of the German locomotive.
The same consideration applies to all of Europe, which has a statistical birth rate of 1.6, which means it will lose close to one million per year. The UN division of Population Statistics consider that Europe should have an influx of 20 million immigrants to retain its course. This is clearly impossible in today political system. With an impeccable observation, a Spanish philosopher, Adela Cortina, has observed that foot players, artist, and rich people, be even Muslim, like princes, are most welcome in Europe. Those who are not welcome are the poor. So, she wrote a book on why we are not in front of a real xenophobia. We face aporofobia, a term she coined using the word apora, the Greek world for poor. In fact, this defense of European civilization is an update of colonialism…
And yet we have plenty of data about the positive impact of immigration. The last is a very complex study over 30 years of immigration, done by the very respected CNRS, the National Center of Scientific Investigation if France, published by Science Advances, on the 15 European countries who did receive 89% of demand for asylum in 2015, the year of the great influx from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. After four years, partly due to the length of the bureaucratic process, the GNP rises by 0.32%. Impacts on the fiscal system are also relevant. Prof. Hippolyte D’Albis, one of the authors, observes that of course initially immigrants are a cost, but this public money is reinvested in the society, and for ten years they produce more wealth than the general population. After ten years they melt in the general statics. It is obvious that the dream of people who come in Europe to escape hunger or wars, is to get a job as soon as possible, pay taxes and contributions to ensure their stability and future, and work hard. At least for a decade. And it is interesting to see the difference between the new right and the old right. The old right was not against immigrants, also because they did provide cheap labor. It was mildly nationalist but was never xenophobe (Jews apart). The alternative right is not interested in statistics and economics. Is interested only to stir fear, to get to the power. Reality is fake news. Trump has claimed that the 250.000 demonstrator against his visit, that kept him out of the center of London, were in fact his supporters. You do not need to be only a narcissist; you need also to reverse reality.
The question, therefore, is what has happened to people. Trump changing a manifestation of 250.00o people intent, would have once ridiculed him. Not now: his tweets are to his supporters undisputed truth. His meeting with Kim brought the vaguest of results, He left the Iran deal, which had several pages of agreement, as one which did not address issues. In the NATO’s meeting, he scolded everybody, and then said that all engaged to increase to 4% their military budget (US is at 3.6%). In the visit to UK, he scolded the beleaguered PM May, defending a hard Brexit, and saluting the resigning Minister of Foreign Affairs and hard Brexiter Johnson as his favorite. He said to May that he did not come to negotiate, but to get what he wanted. He then met Putin, said that the Us was responsible for the bad relations, that Putin was to be believed when he said that there was no Russian meddling in the last elections, and that the Intelligence agencies and the Secretary of Justice, with his Mueller’s probe, were an American disgrace. When, in American history, a President scolding his allies, and praising Us enemies, did not even raised an eyelash from Republican American electorate, which is now Trumpian first than anything else?
Well, a survey, Varieties of Democracy, released last June, says that the concept of Democracy itself is in danger. The survey asked more than 3.000 scholars and country experts to evaluate each of 178 countries on the quality of core features of democracy. At the end of 2016, most people lived in democracies. Since then, one third of the world population, or 2.5 billion have gone through “autocratization”, during which a pacesetter, or a gaggle of leaders start to restrict these democratic attributes, and to rule extra unilaterally. 4 of probably the most populous nations, India Russia, Brazil and United States, have been affected by autocratization. Different giant nations in democratic decline up to now !zero years embrace Congo, Turkey, Ukraine and Poland. The US fell from seventh to 31st in simply two years. The Congress doesn’t like to have the ability to reign the President, the opposition get together seems to be unable to have any affect over the governing get together, and the Judiciary is turning into far more partisan than balanced. The US Supreme Courtroom seemed as a counterweight to the Government, however now its rating slipped to no.48. A ballot from the McKinsey institute came upon that now a full 41% of People wouldn’t thoughts to don’t reside in democracy, if the chief they like would stay in energy past its constitutional time period.
By different hand, it’s reality that folks elect these they like, and subsequently any nation has the chief they elect, be Putin, Erdogan, Orban, Trump, and not centuries ego Mussolini and Hitler. In the event that they need to take heed to Savers despatched by God, , who don’t care about actuality, is their proper. We will solely mourn the rising somnambulism of individuals…
The intense drawback is that this can solely usher in a close to future a catastrophe. It’s actually pressing to create an immigration coverage, to determine standards of people who Industrialized nations want for his or her capability to stay on the planet’s competitors. This won’t occur. All immigrants are introduced as a menace, simply as a cynical street to energy, regardless of actuality. Africa’s inhabitants will double within the subsequent many years. Nigeria will develop to 400 million, the current inhabitants of Europe. Now 60% of Africa’s inhabitants is underneath 25, in contrast with 32% in United States, and 27% in Europe. Are Europeans going to machine gun the immigrants, (as some xenophobe are already asking) and decline to a area of previous individuals, with little pension and an inexistent social system? Is Europe going to lose its unique id, and the values which are enshrined not solely within the European structure, but in addition within the Nationwide ones? The French Parliament has eradicated the time period “race” from its structure, and the Portuguese authorities will give to immigrants who’ve a secure job after a yr, the Portuguese citizenship.
By different hand, to authorities of Nederland, with the help of the Parliament, has determined that may refuse the return to the youngsters born by Dutch mother and father enrolled with ISIS: these youngsters have been born and raised in a local weather of hate and violence, and they might deliver a hazard to the Dutch society. Nederland was a logo of tolerance, and refugees for hundreds of years went to Nederland, flying from spiritual or political conflicts. Nederland has as we speak a inhabitants of 17.2 million individuals, with a excessive normal of dwelling. What number of are the ISIS youngsters? The astounding quantity of 145. It might be unattainable to seek out 145 households, the place these youngsters would overlook the horrors by means of which they went, with none duty, and take pleasure in the advantages of their nationality, which by worldwide regulation is taken into account unwaiverable? Is that this the brand new Europe that its residents need? The brand new face of United States is separating greater than 5.000 youngsters from their immigrant mother and father… It seems like is the brand new face of the West…
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