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Huge advantage for usual top teams

The College Football Playoff logo.

How this works

Let’s give a fast assessment of how this works.

I embrace the rankings in yards per play of every group. On one hand, the resume focuses on which teams you’ve crushed, so I stick with solely figuring out the standard of wins and losses and present you every contender’s remaining video games. Then again, the committee “watches teams play,” which is actually not a quantifiable statistic, however one thing that we will at the very least attempt to get a bearing on. Nonetheless, it’s exhausting to seek out an offensive or defensive metric that precisely represents all teams and types of play.

Some metrics will over-value “air raid” sort offenses whereas some will choose extra constant, however much less explosive, gameplans. The rank in offensive and defensive yards per play provides a primary metric of how environment friendly and/or constant a staff is on each side of the ball.

For the needs of figuring out high quality wins, issues like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do extra hurt than good. There isn’t a cause the hole between No. 25 and No. 26 is taken into account considerably bigger than the hole between 24 and 25. Subsequently, to counteract this, I’m being very lenient as to who is taken into account Top 10 or Top 25. Any workforce within the Top 25 of one of many main polls (CFP, AP, or Coaches’), or in a big variety of the accepted pc rankings, will probably be thought-about within the Top 25 for resume functions. This results in the awkwardness of getting greater than 25 “Top 25″ teams, however it presents a extra correct image of the general resume.

The choice committee has persistently talked about “wins over teams with winning records” as an essential metric, so I’m going to point out that to you. It’s a much less detailed option to view a win than taking a look at the place every win is ranked, however the committee appears to care about it so we’ve to. I can’t rely a win over an FCS workforce as a +.500 win, no matter report. Once more, although the metric is a silly one–there are cupcakes with +.500 data (for instance, Hawaii and Nevada)–the committee cares about it, so we’ve got to.

The SOS vary is taken from quite a few pc rankings. Ranges may be fairly giant, however they do give an honest image of the chances of how robust the schedule truly is.

BUBBLE WATCH

Controls their very own future

Staff vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

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Alabama 1-Zero Zero-Zero 2-Zero 2-Zero Four-Zero 10-45 Four eight.1 (2) Four.Four (7)

In one other yr, this won’t be such a robust resume. It doesn’t matter, although. Alabama might have a horrible resume–with how dominant this staff has been, the committee gained’t care.

Staff vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

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Clemson Zero-Zero 2-Zero 1-Zero Three-Zero Three-Zero 35-50 5 7.Four (Three) Three.9 (2)

This can be a strong resume, particularly for this yr, however these metrics on the finish actually convey issues residence. Clemson is dominating nearly everybody on each side of the ball. The Tigers get an opportunity at a 3rd ranked win towards Boston School this week.

Group vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

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Notre Dame 1-Zero Zero-Zero 1-Zero Four-Zero Three-Zero 25-45 5 6.Zero (37) Four.Four (12)

This resume for the Irish as soon as seemed a lot stronger. That win towards Michigan continues to be big, in fact. However the Stanford win is now barely a Top 40 victory, and the win over Virginia Tech isn’t even that. The Irish get an opportunity to enhance this resume towards Syracuse. If Notre Dame loses that recreation, there are a number of one-loss teams who will in all probability have higher resumes.

Staff vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

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Georgia Zero-1 Three-Zero 1-Zero Three-Zero 1-Zero 2-25 5 6.7 (11) Four.eight (28)

That loss to LSU isn’t dangerous, and 4 Top 40 wins (the computer systems actually like each South Carolina and Missouri) is admittedly robust. The Bulldogs might want to repair what they did towards LSU in the event that they need to win out, however profitable out ensures a Playoff spot–particularly with three good video games remaining. Not solely that, this resume is sweet sufficient that with a little bit of chaos and a superb displaying within the SEC Championship Recreation, Georgia may have the ability to survive a second loss.

Group vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

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Michigan Zero-1 2-Zero 1-Zero Three-Zero 2-Zero 10-20 6 6.1 (31) Three.5 (1)

Don’t ask about what if Georgia, Clemson, and Notre Dame all win out. Simply take a look at this resume. Michigan would even be including a win over Ohio State and a win within the Massive Ten Championship Recreation, although which may not be an excellent win. (The chances at present favor Northwestern profitable the Massive Ten West at 7-5.) Nonetheless, this resume might be superior to Alabama’s in that state of affairs. It was one factor for the committee to place Alabama in over an Ohio State workforce with a tremendously ugly loss to Iowa. It might be one other to go away out a group with an in depth nonconference loss to a different Playoff workforce. Leaving Michigan out in that case would closely discourage enjoying any robust nonconference video games. The committee gained’t do it.

On the Bubble

Staff vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

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Oklahoma Zero-Zero 1-1 2-Zero 2-Zero Three-Zero 20-30 Four eight.7 (1) 5.2 (44)

These SOS numbers are good, and that offensive stat may push the Sooners within the Playoff. Everybody will marvel if perhaps that is the workforce that may keep on with Alabama. Nobody else has even come shut. The loss to Texas isn’t so dangerous, although it obtained worse the previous few weeks. Add in two extra wins over West Virginia to this resume, and it’s in all probability Playoff-worthy in a mean yr. We’ll should see what occurs elsewhere earlier than Oklahoma can get in, although.

Group vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

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West Virginia Zero-Zero 1-1 1-Zero 2-Zero Three-Zero 35-60 Three 6.9 (9) 5.Three (48)

The SOS numbers will enhance, however the Mountaineers are dropping out due to that canceled recreation towards N.C. State. Should you add in two wins over Oklahoma to this resume, it will get fairly robust.

Staff vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

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Ohio State Zero-Zero 1-Zero Zero-1 Three-Zero Four-Zero 45-95 1 6.6 (12) 5.6 (70)

Not solely do the Buckeyes not management their very own future, however I’ve them third on the bubble proper now. These defensive numbers are ugly, the SOS numbers are ugly, and there is just one win (Penn State) of any worth in any respect right here. Even leaving apart Ohio State’s apparent troubles on the sector, this resume is weak. Video games towards Michigan State, Maryland, and Michigan will drastically enhance this (relying on if Maryland can keep away from a complete collapse within the wake of every little thing that occurred there). We’ll should re-judge this resume if the Buckeyes can win all three of these video games. As of now, although, that is very mediocre, even for this yr’s bubble.

Workforce vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

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Washington State Zero-Zero 1-Zero 1-Zero 2-1 Four-Zero 50-100 Four 6.Three (19) Four.7 (25)

I assumed it might be exhausting to discover a bubble resume weaker than Ohio State’s, however it wasn’t. Yeah, there are some higher wins general, however there’s no actual worth right here both, plus some weaker SOS numbers. Additionally, whereas Ohio State closes the season very robust, the Cougars solely have one remaining recreation towards a superb staff–the Apple Cup in three weeks. They’re the one bubble group with top 25 numbers in each offense and protection, although, which ought to be value one thing.

Outdoors wanting in

Group vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

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Boston School Zero-Zero Zero-1 Zero-1 Three-Zero Four-Zero 50-80 Three 5.Four (73) Four.7 (24)
Group vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

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Syracuse Zero-1 1-Zero Zero-Zero 1-1 5-Zero 60-80 2 5.7 (49) 5.9 (91)
Group vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

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N.C. State Zero-1 1-1 Zero-Zero 2-Zero Three-Zero 35-50 Three 6.2 (23) 5.7 (74)

This ACC trio is simply right here in case we see some actual chaos. It’s convoluted, however Boston School and Syracuse can nonetheless win the ACC, plus they every have an opportunity to select up an enormous win. (Boston School performs Clemson this week whereas Syracuse faces Notre Dame subsequent week.) N.C. State’s resume, in the meantime, will plummet because it faces 4 dangerous teams to shut the season. Truthfully, I ought to have eradicated N.C. State already. I’ll rectify that this weekend, it doesn’t matter what occurs.

Group vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Vary Wins over

+.500

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UCF Zero-Zero Zero-Zero Zero-Zero Three-Zero 5-Zero 90-125 Three 7.1 (5) 5.Four (53)

I don’t know what to do with UCF. Final yr I used to be very sympathetic to the Knights. That they had a strong resume and obtained no respect for it. This yr I really feel the other. Take a look at this resume. What in right here says “Playoff team,” in any respect? The numbers will get somewhat higher after dealing with Cincinnati and USF, however not by an excessive amount of. The AAC is weaker this yr than final yr. I don’t actually know what else to say. I want that I assumed that UCF deserves a Playoff spot. I actually do. However I can’t take a look at this resume and take into consideration something aside from the truth that each single staff on the bubble would in all probability have dominated this schedule in additional spectacular style. We’ll see what occurs the subsequent few weeks, nevertheless it’s arduous to again UCF in the mean time.