A few days in the past, Dylan and I launched our record of 2018-19 Fantasy Hockey Sleepers. Drafting the appropriate gamers within the mid-to-late rounds can go a great distance in the direction of profitable a Fantasy Championship, however choosing the incorrect gamers within the early-to-mid rounds can completely destroy your possibilities.
We’ve got complied an inventory of our 2018-19 Fantasy Hockey Busts; gamers who’re being drafted too early for our liking. We used FantasyPros Common Draft Positions (ADP), which mixes the ADP’s from ESPN, Yahoo and CBS.
Final yr it was Max Pacioretty and Braden Holtby (to call a couple of) however who will it’s this season?
- 1 Claude Giroux — Flyers — C/LW
- 2 Evander Kane — Sharks — LW
- 3 Patric Hornqvist — Penguins — RW
- 4 Carey Worth — Canadiens — G
- 5 Matthew Tkachuk — Flames — LW
- 6 Rasmus Dahlin — Sabres — D
- 7 Pekka Rinne — Predators — G
- 8 William Karlsson — Golden Knights — C/LW
- 9 Mathew Dumba — Wild — D
- 10 Gabriel Landeskog — Avalanche — LW
- 11 Yanni Gourde — Lightning — C/RW
- 12 Wayne Simmonds — Flyers — RW
Claude Giroux — Flyers — C/LW
ADP: 22.three | DFO Rank: 26
One-yr faraway from a 14-goal, 58-point season, Giroux turned one of many largest steals in Fantasy Hockey final yr. His bounce-again yr was so large, Giroux goes from steal to bust. The 11-year veteran set new profession-highs in objectives (34), assists (68) and factors (102) however there are plenty of pink flags to recommend he gained’t repeat these numbers.
Previous to final season Giroux had a profession 10.6% capturing proportion however that spiked to 17.6 %—tied for sixth highest amongst gamers with a minimum of 150 photographs. Giroux additionally carried the sixth highest on-ice capturing proportion (12.zero) and neither of these charges are going to be sustainable in 2018-19.
Giroux spent 90.three % of his 5v5 ice-time with Sean Couturier—who had the very best On-Ice SH% (13) within the NHL—the duo carried a robust 55.14 CorsiFor% and averaged 26.72 scoring possibilities per 60. Whereas each of these charges are robust, their conversion fee on these scoring likelihood is virtually assured to drop, which can harm Giroux’s objective and help totals.
Evander Kane — Sharks — LW
ADP: 60.zero | DFO Rank: 107
Kane was acquired by the Sharks on the commerce deadline final yr and performed extraordinarily properly down the stretch. The 27-year-previous winger spent 84.three % of his 5v5 ice-time with Joe Pavelski they usually averaged a strong 36.08 scoring possibilities for per 60. This yr Pavelski will shift again to the wing with Joe Thornton coming back from a knee damage. Kane will play the left-aspect and Thornton will probably be an enormous improve over gamers like Joonas Donskoi and Melker Karlsson, who have been their main proper-wingers final yr.
All of that sounds nice, proper? However what number of occasions have we anticipated huge issues from Kane just for him to disappoint? Is that this the most effective state of affairs he’s ever been in? In all probability. However Kane has missed 97 video games during the last 5 years, so there are sturdiness considerations. I feel Kane goes to have a robust yr, however there are higher and safer choices within the top-60 than Kane. Fantasy house owners are seeing his 43-goal, 24-assist per 82-game tempo throughout his time with the Sharks final season and considering he’ll re-create that over a full season this yr. Nevertheless, should you apply his profession 9.1 capturing proportion to 300 photographs, Kane nonetheless solely scores 27 objectives. He’ll rating within the excessive 20’s with 25-to-30 assists, however his upside is considerably restricted for a participant going within the fifth-spherical.
Patric Hornqvist — Penguins — RW
ADP: 88.three | DFO Rank: 174
Hornqvist is a strong energy-ahead in an amazing state of affairs in Pittsburgh. Final yr he performed over 80 % of his 5v5 ice-time with both Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin, but had simply 14 objectives and 13 assists at even-power. Hornqvist has persistently finished injury on the facility-play, rating 10th within the NHL in PPG (40) during the last 4 seasons. Nevertheless, he’s in the identical state of affairs that he’s been in for 4 years and he’s solely averaged 24 objectives and 25 assists in these seasons. He’s a constant supply of 20-plus objectives and 20-plus assists however his upside is clearly restricted. A 25-25 participant is nice within the later rounds, however the seventh/eighth spherical is way too early for the oft-injured winger.
Carey Worth — Canadiens — G
ADP: 88.7 | DFO Rank: 92
By means of the primary 10 years of his profession (500 begins), Worth posted a 54% profitable proportion, 2.40 objectives towards common and .920 save proportion. Worth has run into damage points in two of the final three years and is coming off of the worst season of his profession (three.11 GAA / .900 SV%). To make issues worse, the Canadiens seem like one of many worst groups within the NHL this season.
Sturdiness points, reducing efficiency and a nasty workforce has Worth trending downwards. A -17.49 objectives saved above common is a transparent signal of Worth’s struggles final season and will make fantasy house owners nervous this fall. Worth is presently being drafted forward of Cam Talbot, Jake Allen and Mike Smith. All three of these netminder have simply as robust of a maintain on the beginning job for his or her staff as Worth and don’t include the damage considerations. Moreover, the Oilers, Blues and Flames all venture to be a lot(!!!) higher groups than the Habs this yr. A as soon as world class goaltender is now falling out of favour within the fantasy world.
Matthew Tkachuk — Flames — LW
ADP: 101.zero | DFO Rank: 132
Throughout his first two NHL seasons, Tkachuk has posted 48 and 49 factors regardless of lacking a mixed 20 video games. Final yr, Tkachuk noticed an enormous bump in ice-time and as soon as once more posted stellar analytical numbers—57.7 CorsiFor%, +6.four relative Corsi. The 20-year-previous has developed a superb rapport with Mikael Backlund, the duo carried lots of the play final season. The rationale for itemizing Tkachuk as a bust is just associated to his ADP. He’s at present being taken forward of Kyle Connor, Jaden Schwartz, Evgenii Dadonov and his teammate Sean Monahan—all of them are ranked at the least 19 spots above Tkachuk in our rankings; Monahan (68), Schwartz (97), Dadonov (112) and Connor (113).
Even in juniors, Tkachuk scored simply 30 objectives and he shot 12.eight % final yr, which can possible drop nearer to 10 % this season. Even when he fires 225 photographs this yr, Tkachuk is probably going solely a 25-25 participant and that isn’t well worth the ninth-spherical funding.
Rasmus Dahlin — Sabres — D
ADP: 104.7 | DFO Rank: 161
Earlier than you freak out, let me begin by saying that I feel Dahlin is a particular participant and he may have an incredible profession. Simply check out this play from his first preseason recreation, he’s received some critical aptitude.
Dahlin doing his factor ? pic.twitter.com/To0JmFvzmU
— Buffalo Sabres (@BuffaloSabres) September 18, 2018
Nevertheless, he’s presently being drafted because the No.24 defenseman on common. He’s going forward of blueliners like Aaron Ekblad, Ivan Provorov and Mark Giordano to call a number of. For those who look within the final decade solely 9 of 459 rookie defensemen which have performed a minimum of 60 video games have recorded greater than 40 factors. Is he able to doing what Zach Werenski and John Klingberg did? In fact, however that’s probably his ceiling. You’ll be able to’t go round drafting gamers anticipating all of them to hit their ceilings. Take a look at a Drew Doughty (No.2 in 2008) or a Victor Hedman (No.2 in 2009), neither of them had greater than 27 factors of their rookie campaigns. Dahlin has large upside, however don’t be stunned if he tops out at 35 factors.
That is clearly wanting from a re-draft perspective and never keeper leagues.
Pekka Rinne — Predators — G
ADP: 24.7 | DFO Rank: 63
This isn’t to say that Rinne gained’t be a serviceable fantasy netminder in 2018-19, however fairly there’s merely method an excessive amount of danger right here to justify taking him within the prime 25. You need to reduce your danger-taking within the early rounds of a fantasy draft to provide your self an opportunity to shine off your roster because the season unfolds. Rinne was exceptional final season, there’s no denying that. He recorded a .927 SV%, choosing up 42 wins and a league-main eight shutouts. Nearly as good as he was in 2017-18, he’s turning 36 this yr and is simply two seasons faraway from a dreadful .908 SV%. If his play in any respect suffers the Predators have probably the greatest backups within the league to show to, Juuse Saros. Saros has a profession .923 SV% throughout 48 appearances and is a critical menace to chop into Rinne’s enjoying time this season no matter how the previous Fin performs. Don’t be stunned to see him begin upwards of 30 video games for the Nashville in 2018-19. You are able to do a lot better together with your second-spherical decide than an growing older goaltender that’s set to obtain round 50 begins this season.
William Karlsson — Golden Knights — C/LW
ADP: 50.zero | DFO Rank: 109
Karlsson enters the 2018-19 season as maybe the obvious bust on the fantasy radar. He defied the chances all yr lengthy final season, however it might be a miracle for Karlsson to even come near a 23.four SH% in 2018-19. In the event you apply his profession mark of 14.6%, which could be very inflated from final yr’s numbers, to the 184 photographs he had in 2018-19, you’d anticipate Karlsson to attain about 25 occasions this yr. 14 % even feels a bit beneficiant given his 7.7 SH% in his two seasons with Columbus. He might considerably offset the dip in SH% with an uptick in shot quantity, however we haven’t seen these sort of proficient shot charges from him earlier than. He’ll have a tough time breaking 30 objectives in 2018-19, not to mention 40.
Mathew Dumba — Wild — D
ADP: 80.7 | DFO Rank: 104
Dumba loved a profession yr in 2017-18, posting private bests in objectives (14), assists (36), and photographs on aim (176). Ryan Suter, Jonas Brodin, and Jared Spurgeon all missed time final yr, forcing Dumba’s ATOI to skyrocket as much as 23:49. A wholesome Wild blueline limits the utilization of Dumba, as Suter and Spurgeon will proceed to see north of 25 minutes an evening. Dumba ought to begin the yr on the Wild’s prime powerplay unit, however his 11.zero on-ice SH% final yr suggests regression is inevitable. He’s clearly nonetheless a serviceable fantasy defenseman, however I can’t advocate taking him over Ryan Ellis, Alex Pietrangelo, or Zach Werenski, who’re all being drafted behind him.
Gabriel Landeskog — Avalanche — LW
ADP: 93.zero | DFO Rank: 111
We’re anticipating Nathan Mackinnon and Mikko Rantanen to take a step again in the direction of Earth this season, so we should assume the identical for Landeskog. The Avs’ captain put up 62 factors final yr, his highest complete because the 2013-14 season. He shot a profession greatest 13.7 % and loved a excessive on-ice SH% of 11.four%. Each ought to regress towards his profession averages and his manufacturing will endure consequently. He appears to have hit his ceiling final yr, which means he’ll want the whole lot to go proper once more simply to get again to 60 factors. Nonetheless, his utilization makes him a protected guess for about 50 factors and also you shouldn’t hesitate so as to add him to the underside of your roster ought to he fall in your draft, however don’t anticipate him to construct on what he did final yr.
Yanni Gourde — Lightning — C/RW
ADP: 100.three | DFO Rank: 217
Gourde was one of many largest surprises of the fantasy season in 2017-18, scoring 25 objectives and including 39 assists in what was his first full season. Sadly for Gourde, regression is sort of clearly on the horizon for him in 2018-19. He took solely 136 photographs however was lucky to take pleasure in a 18.four SH% final yr and an 11.eight on-ice SH%. An uptick in utilization may mitigate the dip in his capturing percentages, however that isn’t coming any time quickly for Gourde, as long as he performs on a stacked Lightning staff. His 100.three ADP is extremely excessive proper now, forward of the likes of Monahan and James van Reimsdyk. Given his position and the inevitable regression dealing with him, Gourde can be fortunate to interrupt 55 factors this season.
Wayne Simmonds — Flyers — RW
ADP: 115.three | DFO Rank: 121
Simmonds has grow to be one of many extra dependable objective scorers within the league, however his ice time is sure to endure this season by the hands of the newly-acquired van Reimsdyk. Given what the Flyers’ strains seemed like on the finish of final season, it’s protected to imagine that Travis Konecny will open up 2018-19 on the primary line with Gioux and Couturier. JVR and Jakub Voracek account for the second-line wing spots, leaving Simmonds to fall to the third line. The Flyers signed JVR for his powerplay prowess, which means it’s probably Simmonds additionally will get bumped right down to the second powerplay unit. There’s nonetheless some upside right here and objectives are onerous to return by, however there’s simply far an excessive amount of uncertainty for my liking.
Brock has been the Editor-In-Chief of DailyFaceoff.com because the begin of the 2012-13 season, the Host of the DFO Podcast since 2015 and Editor-In-Chief of DailyDugout because the 2017 season.